Full Breakdown
U.S. Job Openings Tick Up in July Amid “Low-Fire, Low-Hire” Labor Market
9/1/2026, 8:18:59 PM
Core Event
The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported on September 1 that the number of unfilled positions rose by 89,000 to 7.271 million at the end of July. The increase followed a downward revision of June’s figure to 7.182 million. While openings grew, hiring slipped to 5.054 million, a decline of 278,000 from June, and layoffs fell to 1.666 million, down 119,000. The job-openings rate rose to 4.4 % from 4.3 % in June, whereas the hiring rate dropped to 3.2 % from 3.4 %.
Background & Recent Trends
Since early 2025, the U.S. labor market has been characterized by modest net job creation—about 61,000 jobs per month on average—despite higher borrowing costs and lingering effects of earlier interest-rate hikes. The “low-fire, low-hire” pattern has persisted, with unemployment steady at 4.1 % and quit rates edging lower, indicating workers’ cautious view of job-switching prospects.
Data Highlights
- Manufacturing supplied most of the July gains, adding 79,000 openings, nearly all in durable-goods industries.
- State and local government education, healthcare and social assistance also contributed modestly.
- Leisure and hospitality saw openings fall to their lowest level since 2021.
- Professional and business services posted 65,000 openings but recorded the steepest hiring decline, losing 188,000 positions.
- The JOLTS survey response rate has slipped to just above 30 %, down from roughly 58 % before the COVID-19 pandemic, prompting some economists to caution against over-reliance on the figures.
Official Statements & Responses
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh warned that the central bank “will have work to do” if policymakers do not gain confidence that inflation is moving toward the 2 % target, underscoring the Fed’s focus on price stability despite a seemingly stable labor market.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The labor market is back in the ‘low fire, low hire’ mode,” — Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union
What’s Next
Financial markets are pricing roughly a 66 % probability that the Fed will raise its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points at its September 15-16 meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The outcome will shape monetary policy as the labor market continues its low-turnover stance.
