Alaska Senate Race Tightens as Democrat Gains Sole Nomination

Alaska’s ranked-choice system advances the top four primary finishers regardless of party. Democrat David Leslie, who ran to the left of incumbent Mary Peltola, finished fourth with 1,850 votes and withdrew hours before the deadline, moving Gerald Heikes into the November 3 ballot. The final field now consists of Peltola, Republican incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., and Heikes.

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• Primary: Peltola earned 82,244 votes, an 8.14-point lead over Sullivan.

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• Polls: Data for Progress (July 28 – August 4) showed Peltola 47% vs. Sullivan 41% (±4%). NYT/Siena (mid-June) gave Sullivan 47% vs. Peltola 45% (±4.9%). Public Policy Polling (mid-January) had Peltola 49% vs. Sullivan 47% (no margin reported).

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• Prediction markets (as of September 1): Kalshi priced a Democratic win at 57% vs. 43% Republican; Polymarket placed Peltola at ~66% and Sullivan at ~35%.

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• Forecasts: VoteHub shifted its outlook from “Toss Up” to “Tilt Democrat” on August 18 after Peltola nearly won a primary majority. Decision Desk HQ assigns Peltola a 58% win probability, while Inside Elections rates the race Lean Republican.

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She highlighted her support for Alaska oil development and noted that outside spending was outpacing her campaign’s advertising budget.

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Sullivan’s campaign framed the contest as a choice between his Alaska record and a national Democratic coalition, asserting that “Alaskans do” decide the outcome (August 14 statement).

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• “You can’t have it both ways,” — Dan S. Sullivan, republican senator

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With ranked-choice voting, the elimination of a second Democrat could concentrate liberal-leaning preferences behind Peltola, while the three Republican candidates may split conservative votes unless preferences transfer. Tight polling, market odds, and significant outside spending make the race a national focal point ahead of the November 3 general election.

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