South Carolina Senate Race: Graham Holds Lead in First Independent Poll Amid Mixed Signals

Republican Darline Graham, appointed to fill her brother Senator Lindsey Graham’s seat after his death on July 11, won the party’s nomination and is now the incumbent candidate for a full term. The first nonpartisan poll of the 2026 U.S. Senate contest shows Graham ahead of Democratic challenger Annie Andrews, while earlier Democratic-sponsored surveys suggested a tighter race.

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• Abacus Data (conducted August 26-28 among 500 voters): Graham 55 % vs. Andrews 42 % – a 13-point advantage.

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• Impact Research (August 14-22, 900 likely voters): Andrews 42 % vs. Graham 39 % – a 3-point lead, with a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.

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• Impact Research (August 18-24, 700 likely voters): Both candidates at 41 % (margin of error ±3.7 percentage points).

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Prediction-market odds on Tuesday morning placed Graham’s chance of winning at 88 % on Kalshi and 86 % on Polymarket.

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Graham entered the race with former President Donald Trump’s endorsement and financial backing, while Andrews has highlighted growing grassroots fundraising. Graham’s primary debate performance drew criticism for limited knowledge on Taiwan and the South China Sea, a point Trump defended.

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Former Representative Ralph Norman, who lost to Graham in the Republican primary, condemned Trump’s involvement, saying he “does not understand” the decision to boost Graham instead of Republicans in swing states.

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Statewide voting trends remain heavily Republican; the last Democratic presidential victory in South Carolina was Jimmy Carter’s in 1976, and recent margins for Republican presidential candidates have ranged from 12 to 18 points.

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• “It was just shocking to me,” — Republicans. Ralph Norman

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• “The television stations are ready. I’m ready. The only person we haven’t heard from is the woman who believes she should be handed a six-year Senate term,” — Democrat Annie Andrews

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• “She's into the price of groceries, the price of food, the price of beef,” — Donald Trump, president

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