Story perspectives

August Jobs Report Lifts September Fed Hike Odds to 58%

9/4/2026

Summary

Story summary

U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs in August, raising September Fed hike odds.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support holding rates steady in September if inflation cools.
FedWatch tool showed a 58% chance of a September hike, up from 49.4%.
Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year at 4.80% and the two-year at 4.3381%.
Dow Jones fell about 0.4% (226 points) after the jobs report.

History

Historical Context

In 1981, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker raised the federal funds rate to a record 20%, forcing a sharp recession. The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to increase rates three times that year, while unemployment climbed to 10.8% in December. Today's August nonfarm payroll gain of 162,000 jobs and a 58% FedWatch probability of a September hike echo Volcker’s tight-policy cycle, where labor data steered rate deliberations. The 1980s episode taught policymakers that aggressive rate hikes can suppress inflation but also trigger market volatility, a caution echoed by the Dow’s 0.4% dip.

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Story summary

U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs in August, raising September Fed hike odds.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support holding rates steady in September if inflation cools.
FedWatch tool showed a 58% chance of a September hike, up from 49.4%.
Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year at 4.80% and the two-year at 4.3381%.
Dow Jones fell about 0.4% (226 points) after the jobs report.

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