Full Breakdown
Israeli Election Poll Shows Deep Divides Over Oct. 7 Conspiracy, Leadership and Security Concerns
9/5/2026, 2:01:48 AM
Belief in an “Internal Betrayal” on Oct. 7, 2023
A Maariv poll released in late 2024 indicates that 40 % of respondents think a “betrayal from within” occurred on the morning of October 7, 2023, while 44 % reject that notion and 16 % are unsure. The belief is sharply split along coalition lines: 61 % of voters who support parties in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition endorse the conspiracy, compared with 64 % of opposition voters who say it did not happen.
Shifts in Coalition Strength and Seat Outlook
The poll reports that the recent merger of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party with Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party lifted the alliance above the 3.25 % electoral threshold, granting it five Knesset seats. The Ofer Winter-led People of Israel party also cleared the threshold, adding four seats. Together, these gains raise Netanyahu’s coalition to an estimated 51 seats, the highest level since May 2025. In contrast, the opposition bloc fell to 57 seats, losing two seats largely due to a decline for Gadi Eiskon’s Yashar party.
Prime Minister Preference Rankings
When asked which leader is most suitable to serve as prime minister, 48 % of respondents favored Gadi Eiskon, 43 % chose former prime minister Naftali Bennett, and 39 % supported incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu. Former defense minister Avigdor Liberman received 39 % support, slightly behind Netanyahu’s 42 % in a separate head-to-head comparison.
Anxiety Over a Potential Israel-Iran Conflict
The same poll asked about the prospect of another war with Iran. A majority of 55 % expressed fear that a new conflict could break out soon, while 39 % said they were not concerned and 6 % were undecided.
Attitudes Toward Further Party Mergers
Among opposition voters, 52 % believe additional mergers within the election bloc should occur before the upcoming vote, 27 % prefer parties to run separately, and 21 % are unsure. Support for mergers is higher among voters for Yair Golan’s Democrats (57 %) and Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu (55 %).
These findings illustrate a polarized electorate, with divergent views on the October 7 events, leadership suitability, coalition composition, and regional security risks as Israel approaches its next parliamentary election.
