Surge in England’s Special-Needs Plans Threatens School Budgets

Local authorities and schools across England are reporting a surge in applications for Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs). In 2025, one in 20 school-age children held an EHCP; projections for 2028-29 suggest the proportion could approach one in ten. The number of pupils with EHCPs has risen by more than 11 % in each of the past two years, and councils such as Hampshire and Manchester forecast 58 % and 40 % increases respectively by 2029.

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EHCPs are legally binding documents that outline the support a child or young person with special needs receives up to age 25. The government’s white paper, released in February 2026, aims to shift earlier diagnosis and intervention into mainstream schools while reserving EHCPs for children with the most profound needs from 2030 onward. The announced reforms have prompted families and schools to apply for EHCPs before the new eligibility thresholds take effect.

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• Current holders: >530,000 school-age children.

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• 2025 baseline: 1 in 20 children with an EHCP.

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• Projected 2029 share: just under 10 % of all school-age children.

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• Annual growth: >11 % increase each year for the past two years.

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• County Councils Network forecast (pre-reform): 840,000 EHCPs by 2028-29; the surge suggests this figure will be exceeded.

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• Hampshire Council (July 2026): 58 % rise in applications expected 2026-2030.

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• Manchester Council: 40 % rise anticipated by 2029.

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William Burns, a social-care policy adviser at the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy, cautioned that a forthcoming survey of local-authority treasurers is likely to confirm that the renewed push for EHCPs is creating significant budgetary strain.

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Charity Ipsea, which assists families navigating the SEND system, argues that the government’s proposed reforms risk worsening an already fragile framework by removing statutory protections for children whose support is delayed or denied. Madeleine Cassidy, Ipsea’s chief executive, warned that the changes could exacerbate delays and denials, leaving families without essential assistance.

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• “I’ve spoken to parents around the country, and lots of families and children have been really let down by the system,” — Georgia Gould, schools minister.

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• “While it is hard to give a definitive reason for why this is happening, it appears likely that the government’s plans to restrict future EHCPs to children with the most complex needs may have led to more families and schools applying before these changes kick-in.” — Ipsea

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The rapid expansion of EHCPs threatens to outstrip both central forecasts and local-authority budgets, potentially diverting funds away from specialist support in mainstream schools. If deficits grow as projected, some councils may require statutory overrides from central government to avoid insolvency, jeopardising the stability of the broader SEND provision system.

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No major discrepancies appear among the reported figures; however, detailed cost-impact analyses and the outcomes of the upcoming treasurer survey remain pending, leaving the full fiscal magnitude of the surge uncertain.

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