Trump’s Approval Decline Across Key Demographics Ahead of the 2026 Midterms

President Donald Trump’s net approval has fallen sharply among women, millennials, and rural voters since the start of his second term. ActiVote’s tracking polls show women’s net rating move from –16 in June 2025 to –30 in August 2025, then to –24 by September 2025. Among adults 30-44, the Economist/YouGov survey recorded a net rating of –43 in late August 2026, the lowest point in the series. Rural voters shifted from a +12 net rating in June 2025 to –10 by September 2025, a 22-point reversal. Nationally, Civiqs placed Trump at –24 on August 31 2026 (35 % approve, 59 % disapprove).

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Trump entered his second term on Jan. 20 2025 with a positive national net approval (+6) and modest support among women and rural voters. Economic concerns—particularly inflation, grocery prices, and fuel costs—have dominated voter priorities. In Aug. 2025 the administration announced a temporary suspension of tariffs on up to 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef, intended to lower food prices but provoking backlash from cattle producers and some Republican lawmakers.

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• Women (ActiVote): June 2025 – 41 % approve, 57 % disapprove (net –16); Sep 2025 – 34 % approve, 64 % disapprove (net –30).

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• Millennials 30-44 (Economist/YouGov, Aug 28-31 2026): 27 % approve, 70 % disapprove (net –43).

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• Rural voters (ActiVote): June 2025 – 54 % approve, 42 % disapprove (net +12); Sep 2025 – 42 % approve, 52 % disapprove (net –10).

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• National (Civiqs, Aug 31 2026): 35 % approve, 59 % disapprove (net –24).

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• State-level (Civiqs, Aug 31 2026): Trump is underwater in every major battleground; Kentucky –7, Florida –10, Ohio –17, Nevada –23.

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The demographic downturn erodes the traditional Republican coalition that relies on women, younger voters, and rural constituencies. Midterm races in swing states such as Ohio, Florida, and Nevada now feature narrower Republican leads, raising the risk of losing control of Congress. In Iowa, Rep. Ashley Hinson’s Senate bid faces added pressure as she distances herself from the beef-import policy that has weakened Trump’s rural standing.

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White House spokesman Davis Ingle defended the record, emphasizing job growth, inflation control, and housing affordability. He called the 2024 election “the ultimate poll” and argued that Trump’s agenda is delivering historic progress.

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Several Republican senators publicly opposed the beef-import decision, citing threats to domestic cattle markets: John Barrasso, Tom Cotton, Thom Tillis, Mike Rounds, Jerry Moran, Chuck Grassley, Deb Fischer, and Pete Ricketts.

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Women’s approval figures differ across polls: ActiVote reports a net –30 in Sep 2025, Bellwether records 32 % approval in Aug 2025, and Emerson College finds a 30-point disapproval gap the same month. Subgroup estimates carry larger margins of error, and the timing of the beef-import announcement (Aug 21 2025) falls late in ActiVote’s August field period, making the direct impact on the rural rating shift unclear.

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• “It has increased under his watch and he can no longer blame Biden for it,” — Christine Matthews, Bellwether president

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• “This is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect,” — Davis Ingle, spokesman

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The Nov. 3 2026 midterm elections will test whether the declining approval among women, younger voters, and rural constituencies translates into reduced congressional support for Republican candidates. Polls show several swing states remain underwater for Trump, suggesting campaign strategies will need to address affordability concerns and rural economic anxieties in the weeks before the vote.

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