Pappas vs. Manzur: A Tightening Democratic Primary in New Hampshire’s Senate Race

Four-term U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH, 46) and scientist-activist Karishma Manzur (52) are vying for the Democratic nomination to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. The primary is scheduled for September 8. Early polling showed Pappas with a comfortable lead; recent surveys indicate the gap is shrinking, making the race a focal point for the broader battle over New Hampshire’s Senate seat.

Portsmouth Herald

Shaheen’s retirement leaves an open seat that Democrats view as essential to flipping the U.S. Senate. Pappas has secured endorsements from Shaheen, Sen. Maggie Hassan, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Mark Kelly, and former Vice President Kamala Harris. Manzur, a first-time candidate, embodies the progressive surge energizing anti-establishment voters. On the Republican side, former Sen. John E. Sununu leads a primary that includes former Sen. Scott Brown and is positioned as the GOP’s most viable challenger in the general election.

Washington Examiner

• UNH Survey Center poll (late August): Pappas 47 % vs. Manzur 34 % (13-point margin).

Portsmouth Herald

• GQR internal poll (Aug 19-25): Pappas 71 % vs. Manzur 15 %.

Portsmouth Herald

• Fundraising: Federal filings list Pappas with $4.2 million cash on hand; Manzur holds about $104,000. Roll Call notes Manzur raised $415,000 through July 29, compared with Pappas’s $15.4 million.

Jewish Insider

• General-election polling: Newsweek (Aug 27-30) surveyed 600 likely voters and found Sununu 37 % and Pappas 36 % (margin ±4 pts). Other UNH surveys describe the race as a “statistical tie”.

Newsweek

• Voter registration (Aug 3): 351,815 unaffiliated, 299,976 Republicans, 247,069 Democrats.

Newsweek

• Manzur argues voters are “tired of corporate politicians” and positions herself as a “greater good” alternative that rejects big-money influence.

Portsmouth Herald

• Sununu’s campaign emphasizes his independence from the Trump administration while highlighting support from Republican leadership, including a statement from the Senate Leadership Fund praising his “ability to win independents”.

New Hampshire's GOP primary features two familiar names from the past, and voters are fine with that

Polls diverge sharply: the UNH poll shows a 13-point Pappas lead, the GQR internal poll a 56-point advantage, while the Newsweek poll places the race in a statistical tie with Sununu slightly ahead. Fundraising figures also differ, with seacoastonline reporting a $4.2 million vs. $104,000 gap, whereas Roll Call cites $15.4 million for Pappas and $415,000 for Manzur. No source provides definitive data on Manzur’s support among older voters, a key uncertainty.

Newsweek

The Democratic primary will be decided on September 8. After the primary, forecasters such as Inside Elections have shifted the general-election outlook to a “toss-up,” while the Cook Political Report still classifies the race as “lean Democratic.” Independent prediction markets assign Democrats an 83-84 % chance of winning, but the tight polling and fundraising disparities suggest the final outcome will hinge on voter turnout, especially among the state’s large independent electorate.

Newsweek