Full Breakdown
Labour Party Falls to 25.9% in Latest Poll as National Leads Below 30%
9/7/2026, 12:37:18 AM
Core Event
A Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll conducted with 1,000 respondents between September 1-3 shows the Labour Party’s support slipping to 25.9%, its lowest level since July 2024. The centre-right National Party remains the front-runner with just under 30% support, while the Opportunity Party fell below the 5% threshold required for parliamentary entry without winning an electorate seat.
Background & Context
The poll follows a sustained campaign by the National Party accusing a potential Labour-led coalition of planning new taxes. Labour leader Chris Hipkins has repeatedly countered that the party intends only a targeted capital gains tax. The tax debate has dominated recent political discourse, contributing to Labour’s decline in voter preference.
Data & Statistics
- Labour Party: 25.9% support (Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll).
- National Party: just under 30% support, a drop of 2 percentage points from the previous month’s poll.
- Opportunity Party: below 5% support, insufficient to secure a list seat in Parliament.
- Survey sample: 1,000 respondents, fielded September 1-3.
Official Statements & Responses
Chris Hipkins asserted that Labour’s tax policy would be limited to a targeted capital gains tax, rejecting broader tax-increase claims. The National Party continued its attack campaign, warning voters that a Labour-led government could introduce additional taxes beyond the capital gains proposal.
Implications
Labour’s slide to under-30% support places it well behind National, raising questions about its ability to form a coalition government. The Opportunity Party’s sub-5% standing jeopardizes its parliamentary representation unless it wins an electorate seat. With National’s support also slipping, the electorate appears increasingly volatile ahead of the next general election, and tax policy remains a pivotal issue shaping voter sentiment.
