Republicans’ Mid-Decade Redistricting Push Faces Midterm Uncertainty

Republicans redrew congressional districts in eight states—Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Tennessee, Louisiana and Alabama—while Democrats produced a single gerrymander in California. The plan, launched by the White House last summer, was intended to add more than a dozen seats to the GOP’s razor-thin House majority. Two months out from Election Day, strategists say the effort is on track to net at least six seats, roughly half of the original target. The shortfall reflects a hostile national environment, with President Donald Trump’s approval in the high-30s and an unpopular war in Iran affecting voter sentiment. Seats that were designed to be safe in Texas, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina remain competitive, and a Missouri Supreme Court ruling blocked a one-seat GOP map unless the U.S. Supreme Court intervenes.

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• Adam Kincaid – President, National Republican Redistricting Trust; cartographer of Texas redraw, says the maps made ten districts more favorable for Republicans.

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• Rep. Kevin Kiley (I-Calif.) – Former GOP member; critic of the redistricting war, proposes focusing on affordability.

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• Alfredo Rodriguez – Dallas-based Republican strategist; projects a two- to three-seat gain in Texas, warns a five-seat gain is unlikely.

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• Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) – Calls Florida’s new districts “winnable but requiring effort.”

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• Catherine Hanaway – Missouri Attorney General (R); says the state will ask the U.S. Supreme Court to reverse the Missouri Supreme Court’s block.

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• Ally Triolo – Republican National Committee spokesperson; called the Missouri decision “reckless and wrong.”

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• Mike Marinella – NRCC spokesperson; argues redistricting creates “structural dynamics” that favor Republicans.

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• Bob Clegg – Ohio GOP strategist; notes resources must be spent defending moderate districts.

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Kincaid emphasized that “redistricting is construction, not sales,” and cautioned that building maps does not guarantee electoral success. Rodriguez warned that Texas’s newly drawn Latino-heavy districts, which Trump carried by double digits in 2024, are “shaky.” DeSantis described Florida’s competitive races as “winnable, but requiring effort.” Hanaway announced plans to petition the U.S. Supreme Court, while Triolo condemned the Missouri court’s action as reckless. Marinella highlighted data showing historically poor Democratic performance in the newly drawn seats, citing the Texas 35th District as never having been carried by a Democrat. Clegg stressed that a hostile national environment forces the GOP to allocate significant money to defend contested seats in Ohio and elsewhere.

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“Imagine if we had spent all of the time and energy and resources that have been spent on this redistricting war and instead focused on something like making life more affordable for Americans,” — Rep. Kevin Kiley

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