Full Breakdown
Israeli Election Polls Show Opposition Lead but No Clear Majority Ahead of Oct. 27 Vote
9/7/2026, 11:11:53 AM
Shifting Seat Projections
A poll of polls compiled by Globes (Sept 6, 2026) averaged recent Israeli media surveys and projected the ruling coalition at 51 seats and the opposition bloc at 57 seats. The aggregation gave Likud 24 seats, the new Yashar party led by former chief-of-staff Gadi Eisenkot 23 seats, and the People of Israel party of former IDF general Ofer Winter four seats.
A separate poll by the Lazar Research Institute (sample 600, 4.4 % margin) reported by Maariv also gave the opposition 57 seats and Netanyahu’s bloc 51 seats, assigning 12 seats to Arab parties. Both surveys agree neither bloc reaches the 61-seat threshold needed to form a government.
Background & Context
Israel’s parliamentary system requires a coalition of at least 61 of the 120 Knesset members. Since the December 2022 election, Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition has relied on ultra-Orthodox parties such as United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Shas, and far-right factions like Religious Zionism (Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich) and Your People Israel (Ofer Winter).
The haredi parties have traditionally acted as kingmakers, securing draft exemptions for yeshiva students in exchange for support. Recent changes—most notably the removal of long-serving MK Moshe Gafni from Degel Hatorah’s slate—suggest a shift in that dynamic.
Data & Statistics
| Source | Likud | Yashar | Religious Zionism | Your People Israel | UTJ | Shas | Arab parties |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Globes poll (Sept 6 2026) | 24 | 23 | – | 4 | 8 | 8 | 8 (Joint Arab List) |
| Lazar Institute poll (Maariv) | 20 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 12 |
| MuslimNetwork (citing Maariv) | 20 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 12 |
*Numbers reflect projected seats; totals may not sum to 120 because of averaging methods.*
Official Statements & Responses
- Ofer Winter said he will join a coalition only if it is led by Netanyahu.
- Rabbi Dov Lando, leader of Degel Hatorah, called the removal of Gafni and MK Uri Maklev a “refreshing” of the party’s list, indicating reduced confidence in the coalition’s ability to deliver haredi priorities.
- Maariv noted that the modest rise in Netanyahu’s bloc stems from Religious Zionism crossing the electoral threshold, but both Religious Zionism and Your People Israel remain vulnerable to falling below it.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- The Globes poll suggests the coalition bloc has overtaken the opposition, while the Lazar Institute poll shows the opposition maintaining a six-seat lead.
- Both polls agree on a stalemate but differ on seat distribution among smaller parties, especially ultra-Orthodox and Arab lists.
- Neither source confirms whether Religious Zionism and Your People Israel will clear the threshold, leaving the final seat composition uncertain.
What’s Next
The Israeli general election is set for October 27. After the vote, parties will negotiate coalitions; the opposition must secure additional partners—potentially from the Arab bloc or centrist parties—to reach a majority. The leadership change in Degel Hatorah may also affect haredi leverage in any future coalition.
