Greater Manchester’s Growth Outlook Outpaces Other UK Regions

The ITEM Club, using the UK Treasury’s economic model, projects that Greater Manchester will expand at an average of 1.7 % per year from 2026 to 2030. This rate exceeds the 1.1 % forecast for the Liverpool City Region and the 0.8 % expected for the West Midlands, which includes Birmingham. The forecast positions Greater Manchester as the fastest-expanding mayoral area in the country for the next five years.

Bloomberg

Former mayor Andy Burnham, who re-entered parliament earlier this year, has highlighted the region’s performance as evidence of his “clear theory of growth” and a model for national economic revival. The new prime minister has pledged to “rewire the state,” shifting powers from London to regions in an effort to boost overall UK growth and narrow the economic gap between the capital and other cities.

Bloomberg

Burnham argued that Greater Manchester’s success demonstrates policies that can be replicated nationwide. Tim Lyne, economic adviser to the ITEM Club, cautioned that the prime minister’s devolution agenda is unlikely to produce a major short-term impact. He noted that modest growth across most of the UK will constrain how quickly local leaders can translate new powers into stronger economic outcomes, describing the benefits of devolution as a gradual process rather than a rapid transformation.

Bloomberg

• “Growth across most parts of the UK is set to stay modest over the next five years, which will limit how far and how fast local leaders can turn new powers into stronger economic outcomes,” — Tim Lyne, economic adviser to the ITEM Club

Bloomberg

If the projected growth materialises, Greater Manchester could attract further private investment and serve as a testing ground for devolved economic strategies. However, the ITEM Club’s assessment suggests that any gains from newly granted powers will unfold slowly, meaning that local authorities may need to rely on existing assets and private sector initiatives to sustain momentum while broader national reforms take effect.

Bloomberg