Full Breakdown
Trump’s “Small Potatoes” War and the Renewed Threat to Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain
9/7/2026, 2:20:46 PM
The Escalating Threat to Pickaxe Mountain
President Donald Trump warned from the Oval Office that the United States may strike the underground facility known as Pickaxe Mountain – a fortified site near the Natanz enrichment plant – “very soon.” The comment echoes a similar threat voiced on the Hugh Hewitt Show in mid-July and follows a recent U.S. missile strike that hit an Iranian oil tanker off Kharg Island.
Background to the U.S.–Iran Conflict
The war began on February 28 when the United States and Israel launched coordinated attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. Strikes in June 2025 targeted Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, destroying a large portion of Iran’s centrifuge capacity. Negotiations stalled after a 60-day diplomatic window expired in mid-August, leaving the nuclear issue unresolved.
Data and Military Activity
- U.S. and Israeli forces have hit more than 15,000 targets across Iran since the war’s start.
- The European Council on Foreign Relations estimates the 2025 strikes destroyed roughly 18,000 centrifuges at Natanz and Fordow and damaged the Ardakan plant.
- Analysts cited by Al Jazeera estimate Iran holds about 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60 %, enough to produce more than ten nuclear warheads.
- The Institute for Science and International Security reports Pickaxe Mountain’s main chambers lie at least 100 m underground and the site remains under construction.
Official Statements & Responses
- Trump described the hostilities as “small potatoes,” claiming the 2025 strikes had “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program.
- Vice President JD Vance similarly downplayed the fighting, saying there is “no active shooting right now.”
- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed damage to the entrance buildings of Natanz in March 2026 but reported no further impact on the plant’s interior.
- A leaked U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency assessment qualified Trump’s claim, stating the sites were “significantly damaged but not destroyed.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Damage assessment: Trump’s assertion of total destruction conflicts with the Defense Intelligence Agency’s estimate of “significant damage.”
- The IAEA has been unable to inspect the bombed sites, leaving the extent of remaining enrichment capability unclear.
Why It Matters
The renewed threat to Pickaxe Mountain suggests the United States may expand targeting beyond already-damaged facilities, raising the risk of further escalation. Domestically, the war’s portrayal as “small potatoes” has drawn criticism from Republican lawmakers and fuels debate ahead of the November midterms. Internationally, uncertainty about Iran’s remaining enriched uranium and the durability of its underground sites influences regional security calculations and non-proliferation efforts.
What’s Next
Trump indicated that a strike on Pickaxe Mountain could occur “very soon,” but no timeline was provided. U.S. officials have not confirmed any imminent operation, and the IAEA continues to call for access to the damaged sites to verify the nuclear program’s condition.
Verbatim Quotes
- “It is serious. I think we all recognize that.” — Lawler
- “No one really knows what the state of Iran’s nuclear programme is at this moment; there’s a lot of uncertainty and ambiguity about how much damage Iran has suffered as a result of these last two wars,” — Nader Hashemi, Georgetown University
