Full Breakdown
Right-wing Bloc Breaks 50 % Poll Threshold Amid Ceuta Migrant Crisis
9/7/2026, 9:09:04 PM
Core Event
A poll conducted by 40dB for *El País* shows the conservative People’s Party (People's Party (PP)) and far-right Vox together commanding 50.2 % of the estimated vote share – the first time the right-wing bloc has crossed the half-vote mark in this parliamentary term. The survey was carried out between August 31 and September 2, roughly one month after the mass arrival of migrants in the Spanish exclave of Ceuta. The result suggests the bloc could secure an absolute majority in the general election scheduled for next year.
Background & Context
On July 30, Ceuta was flooded with more than 70,000 illegal migrants arriving from Morocco, the largest single-day influx at the enclave’s land border. The surge followed a Spanish Supreme Court ruling that migrants who reach Ceuta by sea are not automatically returned to Morocco. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez blamed “misinterpretation” of the ruling and “disinformation” spread on social media, while a Spanish police report later indicated that Moroccan police may have assisted migrants for over ten hours on the day of the crossing.
Data & Statistics
- PP-Vox combined: 50.2 % (40dB/El País).
- PP alone: 32.4 % (up 0.4 pp from July).
- Vox: 17.8 % (up 0.6 pp; 5.4 pp higher than its 2023 result).
- Left-wing bloc (PSOE-Sumar-Podemos): 36.1 % overall; PSOE at 27.6 % (down 0.4 pp).
- Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF): 2.2 % (far-right agitator Alvise Pérez).
- Public assessment of government handling: 63 % rate Sánchez’s response “bad or very bad”.
- Perception of Morocco’s role: 89 % of respondents believe Morocco was behind the influx.
- Remaining migrants in Ceuta: at least 5,000 still camped on the main beach or in streets more than a month after the arrival.
Criticism & Opposition
- Ana Carmona, analyst at the University of Seville, characterised the handling of the incursion as “terribly” managed, criticizing the failure to promptly involve EU border agency Frontex.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Sources differ on the total number of migrants who entered Ceuta: one report cites “over 70,000” arrivals, while another estimates “72,000.” Both agree that the majority have returned, yet the exact proportion remains unspecified.
- The police report suggests Moroccan police assistance, whereas Sánchez maintains there is no evidence of Moroccan planning. No independent verification of either claim is provided.
Verbatim Quotes
What’s Next
The right-wing bloc’s poll surge places it in a strong position for the general election slated for sometime next year. Analysts expect the migration issue to remain a decisive factor in voter behaviour, while the Sánchez government faces continued protests and parliamentary scrutiny over its response to the Ceuta crisis.
