Full Breakdown
ESPN Analytics Releases Week 1 Win Probabilities for All 16 NFL Matchups
9/8/2026, 2:45:29 AM
Core Event
ESPN Analytics’ “Matchup Predictor” has published win-probability estimates for every game on the NFL’s opening week. The model assigns a percentage chance to each team and reserves the remaining fraction for a possible tie, so the totals for each contest fall just short of 100 %.
Data & Statistics
- Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots – Seahawks 61.1 %, Patriots 38.6 %
- Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers – Rams 60.5 %, 49ers 39.2 %
- Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers – Bears 59.6 %, Panthers 40.0 %
- Cincinnati Bengals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Bengals 61.6 %, Buccaneers 38.0 %
- Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints – Lions 71.9 %, Saints 27.9 %
- Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans – Bills 53.5 %, Texans 46.1 %
- Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts – Ravens 59.0 %, Colts 40.6 %
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cleveland Browns – Jaguars 77.3 %, Browns 22.5 %
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons – Steelers 58.9 %, Falcons 40.8 %
- Tennessee Titans vs New York Jets – Titans 57.6 %, Jets 42.0 %
- Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers – (probabilities not listed in the source)
- Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders – (probabilities not listed in the source)
- Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings – (probabilities not listed in the source)
- Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles – (probabilities not listed in the source)
- Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants – (probabilities not listed in the source)
- Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs – (probabilities not listed in the source)
Background & Context
The Matchup Predictor is ESPN Analytics’ statistical model that evaluates team performance, schedule factors and other inputs to generate a single win-probability figure for each side. By allowing for ties, the model’s percentages for the two teams in a game sum to slightly under 100 %, reflecting the small chance of a dead-heat outcome.
Why It Matters
These probabilities give fans, media analysts and fantasy-football participants a data-driven snapshot of expected outcomes before the first games are played. By quantifying each team’s chance of victory, the model provides a benchmark against which actual game results can be compared, offering insight into the accuracy of the analytics and informing early-season expectations.
