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NOAA Warns Strong El Niño Likely to Bring Extreme Weather

9/8/2026

Summary

NOAA Predicts El Niño

NOAA says a very strong El Niño is strengthening across the Pacific, creating extreme weather.
NOAA Weather Prediction Center reports over 90 percent chance of a strong El Niño this winter.
Climate Prediction Center gives a 69 percent chance the October-December index will exceed 2.5 °C, a record since 1950.
Indonesia battles massive wildfires this month, which scientists link to the intensifying El Niño.

Summary

Santa Barbara Spends

Santa Barbara County spent about $60 million on storm-related costs in 2023-24, receiving only $4 million from FEMA.
County officials warned limited federal aid may force repair prioritization, straining reserves for the upcoming El Niño winter.
Only 4 percent of U.S. homeowners had flood insurance in 2025, according to the Insurance Information Institute.
Santa Cruz County launched the CruzAware alert system after the 2023 storms to improve emergency communication.

History

Historical Context

During the 1997 El Niño, the climate system recorded unusually warm Pacific waters that drove an above-normal hurricane season with 24 tropical cyclones and high accumulated cyclone energy. That event showed how El Niño amplifies storm intensity, prompting today’s coastal planners—such as Santa Barbara County—to allocate funds for emergency systems in their regions despite limited federal aid.

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NOAA Predicts El Niño

NOAA says a very strong El Niño is strengthening across the Pacific, creating extreme weather.
NOAA Weather Prediction Center reports over 90 percent chance of a strong El Niño this winter.
Climate Prediction Center gives a 69 percent chance the October-December index will exceed 2.5 °C, a record since 1950.
Indonesia battles massive wildfires this month, which scientists link to the intensifying El Niño.

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