Goldman Sachs Warns Oil Could Spike to $120 Amid Escalating Middle East Shipping Threats

Goldman Sachs’ commodities research team projects Brent crude could climb to $120 a barrel should attacks on commercial shipping in the Middle East intensify. The bank also outlines a lower-bound scenario of $80 a barrel if regional oil exports return to normal levels. The forecast hinges on the risk that tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters become increasingly constrained.

Goldman Sees Oil Hitting $120 if Middle East Tanker Attacks Escalate

The United States and Iran have been locked in a naval standoff that began after the war launched on February 28. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies in peacetime, remains a focal point of the conflict. Recent U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers and Iran’s declaration of a new “restricted zone” outside the strait have heightened uncertainty for commercial vessels.

The Independent

• Current Brent price: around $97 per barrel, the highest level since July.

Goldman Sachs: Brent crude could surge to $120 if Middle East ship attacks escalate — BigGo Finance

• Diesel: industrial diesel prices have more than doubled year-to-date.

Goldman sees $120 a barrel oil risk

• Tanker traffic: Rystad estimates daily crude flow through the strait has fallen to 4–5 million barrels, down from the U.S.–led average of eight million barrels. Kpler data show an average of ten commodity vessels per day over the past ten days, the lowest since May, with just two vessels transiting on a recent Saturday.

Goldman Sees Oil Hitting $120 if Middle East Tanker Attacks Escalate

• “While we see meaningful upside to crude oil prices, we do recommend to investors to hedge geopolitical risks by going long in global natural gas and refined-oil products.” – Daan Struyven

Bloomberg

• Iran: Security council chief Mohsen Rezaei announced that any ship entering the newly announced exclusion zone will be placed on Iran’s sanctions list.

The Independent

• U.S. naval forces: Continue to block Iranian ports while escorting vessels from other Gulf producers, signaling an effort to keep oil flows moving despite the heightened threat environment.

The Maritime Executive

• Date status: The date ledger lists September 7, 2026 as a scheduled event; the warning is presented as scheduled for that date.

Oil Price

• Traffic figures: Rystad’s estimate of 4–5 million barrels per day contrasts with Kpler’s vessel-count data, which do not provide a direct barrel-per-day measure, highlighting limited public data on actual flow volumes.

Goldman Sees Oil Hitting $120 if Middle East Tanker Attacks Escalate

• “Events over the last few days do suggest that the risk of shipping disruptions broadening and intensifying is an important one,” — Daan Struyven

Bloomberg

• “Any ship that enters this area with the intention of passing through the Strait of Hormuz and is identified will be placed on our sanctions list,” — Mohsen Rezaei

Oil Price

Iran has signaled that a new exclusion zone will be announced “in the coming days,” and Rezaei has indicated that ships crossing the U.S. blockade line could be blacklisted. Goldman’s forecast suggests that further escalation would push Brent toward the $120 scenario, while de-escalation that restores normal export volumes could pull prices back toward $80.

Goldman Sachs: Brent crude could surge to $120 if Middle East ship attacks escalate — BigGo Finance