Full Breakdown
Super El Niño Development and Projected Impacts on China
9/9/2026, 2:48:04 AM
Forecast Overview
The National Climate Center (NCC) reports that the current El Niño is strengthening rapidly and may reach “super” status, potentially becoming the strongest on record. Sea-surface-temperature (SST) indices rose to 2.09 °C in July and 2.59 °C in August—the highest values for those months since the 1951 record. The World Meteorological Organization expects further warming, with the peak projected for November-December and a near-100 % probability of persistence through February 2027.
Anticipated Climate Effects
NCC forecasters say the event will shape China’s weather through autumn, winter and into the summer of 2027. Expected outcomes include:
- Above-average rainfall across central and eastern China, especially the middle and lower Yangtze River basin, raising the risk of severe rainstorms and flooding.
- Record-setting precipitation at 44 national stations during June-August, with an average of 338.4 mm—2 % above the seasonal norm, and 15 widespread rain-storm events.
- Seven typhoons made landfall this summer, exceeding the seasonal average of 4.7; Typhoon Bavi was the strongest to strike Zhejiang since 1949.
- Elevated temperatures in Southwest, South and Jiangnan regions, with potential heatwaves in September.
- Contrasting regional risks: Northeast and North China may face flooding that threatens grain production, while Northwest China and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region could experience drought due to high temperatures and limited rain.
Sectoral and Operational Concerns
Senior engineer Li Xiang identifies agriculture, electricity, infrastructure and transportation as sectors most vulnerable to the projected anomalies. NCC officials advise continuous real-time monitoring and dynamic forecasts to guide mitigation efforts.
Official Statements & Responses
Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the NCC, emphasized the SST trend and the expected November-December peak. Gu Wei, also a chief forecaster, warned that the summer 2027 climate will be more strongly affected than in 2026, with heightened flood risk along the Yangtze. Gao Rong, deputy director of the NCC, highlighted above-normal rainfall across the Yangtze basin and the heightened chance of extreme precipitation in southern and southwestern provinces.
Verbatim Quote
“The equatorial central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperature is expected to continue its fluctuating upward trend and reach the peak of this event around November and December,” — Chen
