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Story summary
- Decision Desk HQ declared the Senate a pure toss-up.
- August polls moved the average simulation to a 50-50 tie.
- A tie would let Republicans stay in power via Vice President JD Vance’s vote.
- Simulations also show a 51-49 Democratic Senate majority as equally likely.
- Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats a 67% chance of a House majority, up from 60%.
