Full Breakdown
QBERT 2026: A Revamped Quarterback Rating System Aimed at Isolating Individual Performance
9/9/2026, 3:44:23 AM
Overview of the Updated System
The 2026 iteration of QBERT, the quarterback rating model created by Nate Silver’s team, replaces the previous version that mirrored ESPN’s QBR. The new system expands its data set back to 2006, refits statistical coefficients, and introduces structural changes intended to separate a quarterback’s contribution from team context and improve forward-looking projections for the companion ELWAY model.
Methodological Changes
| Aspect | Prior Approach | 2026 Adjustment | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Touchdown weighting | Valued each passing TD at roughly 45 yards | Reduced TD credit by about 50 % and shifted value to first-down production | Touchdowns are “noisy and opportunity-dependent” |
| Sneak plays | Treated all quarterback rushes equally | Applied a penalty to sneak TDs and gave less credit overall | Sneaks depend heavily on line and play-calling |
| Game-script factor | Added credit for quarterbacks on early-lead teams | Removed game-script variables | To avoid inflating ratings for QBs on strong teams |
| Interception modeling | Used raw interception rates | Regresses interception propensity toward an expected league rate until a quarterback accumulates several years of data | Interceptions are rare and need larger samples |
| Injury risk | Relied on hand-curated injury grades (2025) | Implements a statistical injury model based on past injuries, career longevity, age, and sack rate; corrects an earlier underestimation of weekly injury risk (previously 2-3 % vs. the actual 4-5 %) | Provides more accurate risk assessments for ELWAY projections |
These adjustments collectively raise the signal that QBERT supplies to ELWAY by an estimated 10-15 %, according to the developers.
Impact on Quarterback Rankings
The updated QBERT leaderboard, based on 2025 season data, lists Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) as the top-rated quarterback. Brock Purdy also receives a relatively high rating, reflecting the model’s aim to diverge from conventional wisdom. Pocket passers such as Matthew Stafford receive a modest boost because the expanded historical sample (2006-2024) balances earlier era favorability toward mobile quarterbacks.
Integration with Fantasy Projections
While the fantasy model does not explicitly reference QBERT, Allen’s top fantasy position aligns with his QBERT rating, suggesting that the refined evaluation feeds into broader projection tools used by fantasy analysts.
Official Rationale
The QBERT team notes that the modern NFL is “very pass/QB-friendly,” making raw rating numbers appear extraordinary compared with earlier eras. By adjusting for era-specific dynamics and removing team-level bonuses, QBERT aims to produce a metric that more accurately predicts future performance, especially for young quarterbacks whose trajectories improve rapidly with experience. The injury model now follows four rules: past injuries forecast future risk, career longevity indicates injury avoidance, age raises risk, and a high sack rate signals vulnerability.
What’s Next
The ELWAY projection model will incorporate the revised QBERT ratings to generate season-long performance forecasts for all quarterbacks. Users can expect an interactive tool that allows side-by-side comparisons of quarterbacks across NFL history, illustrating how individual ratings evolve over time.
