Full Breakdown
Pre-Election Realignments in Israel’s Right-Wing Bloc
9/9/2026, 5:48:23 AM
Core Event
Ahead of the September 8 deadline for submitting candidate lists for the October 27 Knesset election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has intensified efforts to merge Israel’s fragmented right-wing parties while the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) alliance has removed veteran MKs Moshe Gafni and Uri Maklev from its slate. Both moves aim to preserve the governing coalition’s parliamentary strength amid slipping polls and heightened scrutiny over security and conscription policies.
Background & Context
Israel’s 120-seat Knesset requires parties to clear a 3.25 % vote threshold (four seats). Netanyahu’s Likud, which won decisively in 2022, now faces polls suggesting a loss of roughly one-third of its seats, potentially falling to 20-23. The party’s standing has been weakened by criticism of its handling of the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and controversy over exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men from military service.
Key Figures & Groups
- Benjamin Netanyahu – Prime Minister, Likud leader.
- Bezalel Smotrich – Finance Minister, head of Religious Zionism.
- Itamar Ben-Gvir – National Security Minister, leader of Jewish Power.
- Moshe Feiglin – Head of Zehut, former Likud member.
- Ofer Winter – Former brigadier general, leader of a new right-wing party.
- Gadi Eisenkot – Former military chief, leader of the Yashar party.
- Moshe Gafni – Long-time UTJ MK.
- Uri Maklev – UTJ MK.
Timeline
- August 30 – Netanyahu told Channel 14, “When we unite, we win. When we splinter, we lose.”
- September 1 – Religious Zionism merged its list with Zehut.
- September 8 – Deadline for parties to file final candidate lists.
- October 27 – Scheduled Knesset election date.
Data & Statistics
- Likud’s projected seat range: 20-23.
- Religious Zionism polling: 0-6 seats.
- Jewish Power currently holds six seats.
- UTJ’s recent poll share: seven seats.
- Electoral threshold: 3.25 % of the national vote.
Official Statements & Responses
Netanyahu warned that a fragmented right-wing vote could jeopardize the coalition’s ability to secure a majority. The UTJ leadership said the removal of Gafni and Maklev reflects internal disagreements over the party’s relationship with Netanyahu’s government, particularly regarding draft-exemption legislation.
Criticism & Opposition
“The currency that matters is not public service, integrity or Israel’s security, but the degree of devotion and willingness to deepen the rift in Israeli society and strengthen the leader at any cost,” — Gadi Eisenkot, former military chief.
Verbatim Quotes
- “When we unite, we win. When we splinter, we lose,” — Benjamin Netanyahu.
What’s Next
With candidate lists locked in, parties will focus on campaign messaging through September and October. After the October 27 election, coalition negotiations are expected to intensify as Likud and UTJ seek enough seats to form a governing majority. The outcome will determine whether Netanyahu can retain his seventh term and whether the ultra-Orthodox bloc will continue to wield kingmaker influence.
