Minnesota Senate Race Tightens as New Poll Shows Two-Point Gap

A poll conducted by TIPP/League of American Workers from August 31 to September 2 surveyed 1,201 likely voters and found Democrat Peggy Flanagan leading Republican Michele Tafoya by 44 % to 42 %. The two-point margin falls within the poll’s 3 % margin of error, indicating a statistical tie. Among likely voters, 4 % supported other candidates, 2 % chose “someone else,” and 8 % were undecided. A separate poll of 1,494 registered voters showed Flanagan at 40 % and Tafoya at 38 %, also within a 2.7 % margin of error. Both candidates captured 37 % of the independent vote. Favorability ratings were close: Flanagan 39 % favorable vs. 34 % unfavorable, while Tafoya held a 34 % favorable rating against 30 % unfavorable. Prediction-market data from Kalshi and Polymarket on a Monday afternoon gave Flanagan roughly a 90-94 % chance of winning, leaving Tafoya with about an 8-9 % chance.

Newsweek

The race concerns Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by Democratic Senator Tina Smith. Flanagan, the state’s lieutenant governor, secured the Democratic nomination after defeating Representative Angie Craig, a win backed by progressive figures such as Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Ilhan Omar. Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter, earned the Republican nomination and is leveraging her name recognition as a political outsider. The contest arrives amid the 2024 midterm elections, traditionally a test of the party holding the presidency, with Republicans currently holding narrow majorities in both chambers.

Newsweek

Lexi Byler, spokesperson for the Flanagan campaign, characterized Tafoya as a “loyal soldier to Donald Trump,” accusing her of supporting policies that led to deaths, defending the January 6 rioters, and endorsing tariffs that hurt farmers. Byler argued that Flanagan is fighting for working families.

Newsweek

• Likely-voter poll: Flanagan 44 % vs. Tafoya 42 % (margin ±3 %).

Newsweek

• Registered-voter poll: Flanagan 40 % vs. Tafoya 38 % (margin ±2.7 %).

Newsweek

• Independent voters: 37 % each.

Newsweek

• Favorability: Flanagan 39 % favorable/34 % unfavorable; Tafoya 34 % favorable/30 % unfavorable.

Newsweek

• Prediction markets: Flanagan 90.5-94 % chance; Tafoya 8-9 % chance.

Newsweek

With the Senate balance of power at stake, a competitive Minnesota race could influence national control of the chamber. The narrow polling gap also highlights the potential for late-campaign shifts, as both campaigns target the small share of undecided voters. Minnesota’s recent Democratic successes in statewide contests suggest an advantage for Flanagan, but the close numbers underscore the race’s volatility heading into the November midterms.

Newsweek