U.S. Fuel Market Tightens Amid Middle East Conflict

A cost tracker from The Watson School of International and Public Affairs at Brown University estimates that U.S. consumers have paid an additional $100.9 billion for gasoline and diesel since the conflict began, roughly $770 per household. The same tracker puts the gasoline-only surcharge at $55 billion (about $422 per household) and the diesel surcharge at $46 billion (about $348 per household). AAA reported gasoline climbing above $4.15 per gallon, a three-month high, while the average diesel price reached $5.90 per gallon, up from $3.76 when the war started.

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Speculators have abandoned a bearish stance. John Kemp reported that, as of September 1, hedge funds moved from short to long on fuel contracts, building a net long position of 177 million barrels across gasoline and diesel. Their crude-oil position remained only slightly bearish. Analysts note that refinery maintenance season and the inability to quickly replace Middle-East output will keep inventories low for weeks.

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Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast for December by $5, projecting an average of $80 per barrel in 2027 and warning that prices could exceed $120 if Gulf output stays depressed.

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• “We’re looking at a fall that’s going to be the most expensive ever for gasoline, but really for diesel. And that’s going to fuel every aspect of inflation,” — Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser at Gulf Oil

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• “This is a quiet but very, very concerning crisis right now,” — Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser at Gulf Oil

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• “Some pumps aren’t even built to display what could come next,” — De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy

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