Full Breakdown
Record Copper Prices Surge Amid U.S. Tariff Uncertainty and Chilean Supply Strains
9/9/2026, 10:41:11 AM
Record-Breaking LME Prices
Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) climbed to a fresh all-time high above US$14,530 per metric ton, eclipsing the previous record set earlier in the year. Prices are up roughly 18 % year-to-date and 47 % over the past 12 months.
Drivers of the Surge
U.S. Tariff Uncertainty
The U.S. Department of Commerce has proposed a 15 % tariff on refined copper imports starting next year, rising to 30 % by 2028. The investigative report required by June 30 was delayed by more than two months, prolonging market uncertainty. Traders have responded by shipping large volumes of refined copper into U.S. warehouses ahead of any duties, creating a pronounced regional supply shift.
Chilean Production Disruptions
Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, has faced operational setbacks—including severe weather and a mine collapse—that have curtailed output and export revenue, which fell to US$4.63 billion, the lowest level in over a year. The International Copper Study Group reports that global mine production in the first half of the year declined 1.1 % year-over-year, while copper concentrate output fell 2.6 %.
Growing End-Use Demand
Long-term demand growth is being fueled by artificial-intelligence data centers, renewable-energy infrastructure, power-grid upgrades and electric-vehicle production, expanding the metal’s consumption base beyond traditional construction and manufacturing.
Inventory Shifts
COMEX inventories have surged more than eightfold, rising from roughly 80,000 tons a year ago to about 696,000 tons—a record high. In contrast, LME stockpiles have contracted by roughly 40 % since late May, reaching their lowest level in around five months. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses have also reported their lowest inventories since 2024.
Data & Statistics
| Metric | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| LME three-month price peak | > US$14,530/ton | Multiple market reports |
| Year-to-date price increase | ~18 % | Market data |
| 12-month price increase | ~47 % | Market data |
| COMEX inventory level | ~696,000 tons | COMEX data |
| LME inventory decline | ~40 % | LME data |
| U.S. copper imports (latest month) | 200,000 tons (largest since 2014) | IHS Markit |
| Chile export revenue (latest month) | US$4.63 billion | Chilean central bank |
| Global mine production change (H1) | –1.1 % YoY | International Copper Study Group |
| Copper concentrate production change (H1) | –2.6 % YoY | International Copper Study Group |
Official Statements & Responses
U.S. officials have indicated that the pending tariff review remains under consideration, with no final decision disclosed after the missed June 30 deadline.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Different outlets have reported slightly varying record levels: some cite US$14,530 per ton, others US$14,533, and a few mention US$14,617. All agree the price set a new high, but the exact peak figure differs across sources. Precise month-by-month U.S. import breakdowns beyond the latest data are not provided.
Verbatim Quotes
- “With copper being concentrated into the U.S. ahead of potential tariffs, COMEX inventories have surged to record levels while LME stockpiles have contracted sharply,” — Kim Seok-hwan, Mirae Asset Securities
- “The weak exports are due to operational problems at mines, as well as severe winter storms accompanied by heavy rain, snowfall and strong winds, which disrupted mining operations in July and August,” — Commerzbank analyst
What’s Next
The U.S. Commerce Department’s final tariff determination remains pending, with a formal decision expected later this year. Monitoring Chilean output and global inventory levels will be critical to assessing whether the price rally sustains as supply conditions evolve.
