Full Breakdown
Philippine Peso Hits Record-Low Levels Amid Rising Oil Prices and a Stronger Dollar
9/9/2026, 11:31:19 AM
Core Event: Peso Slides to Historic Lows
The Philippine peso breached the P62-per-dollar barrier for the first time on August 28, closing at P62.265. It later touched an intraday low of P62.775 on September 7 before settling at P62.586, and on September 8 closed at a fresh record low of P62.625 to the U.S. dollar.
Background & Context
The peso’s depreciation accelerated in March 2026, when it first fell to P60 per dollar, and has since been driven by a mix of external and domestic pressures:
- Oil-price shock – Higher global crude prices raise the cost of fuel, transport, and fertilizer.
- U.S. monetary tightening – Anticipated Federal Reserve rate hikes increase demand for dollars.
- Structural balance-of-payments deficit – Weak export growth relative to robust import demand leaves the country reliant on foreign inflows.
Data & Statistics
- Exchange rates: Record-low closings of P62.265 (Aug 28), P62.586 (Sep 7) and P62.625 (Sep 8).
- Inflation: Headline inflation hit 6.1 % in August, above the BSP’s 2 %–4 % target.
- Foreign reserves: $104.8 billion at end-August, enough for roughly 6.8 months of imports and 3.7 × short-term external debt.
- Trade gap: Import bill rose about 29 % to $37 billion in the first seven months.
- Interest rates: BSP benchmark rate at 5 % after a recent quarter-point hike.
Official Statements & Responses
Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said the peso’s depreciation adds pressure to domestic pump prices because petroleum products are purchased in dollars.
BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr. told a Senate budget hearing on August 27 that the central bank will smooth sharp currency swings but will not defend the peso at a specific level, warning that such intervention would deplete dollar reserves.
Finance Secretary Frederick Go emphasized that the priority is managing the speed of peso movements, noting that monetary tools are being used proactively to curb inflation.
Verbatim Quotes
- “As a major oil importer, the Philippines remains sensitive to higher energy prices because of their implications for inflation and the country’s import bill,” — Ruben Carlo Asuncion, chief economist, UnionBank
- “The peso’s weakness reflects a combination of factors: the structural balance-of-payments deficit from weak exports relative to strong import demand, risk-off sentiment favouring the dollar, softer domestic sentiment, and expectations of further peso depreciation,” — Domini Velasquez, chief economist, China Banking Corp
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Two outlets reported slightly different intraday lows on September 7: Rappler recorded P62.775, while the Inquirer cited P62.675. Both agree on the closing record low of P62.625 on September 8, highlighting limited real-time data transparency.
What’s Next
Analysts at Bank of America Securities project the peso could trade around P63 per dollar by the end of 2026 and slide to P65 by mid-2027 if trends persist. The BSP is expected to keep tightening policy if inflation remains elevated, while investors await U.S. inflation data later this week, which could further influence dollar demand and peso movements.
