Ukraine Prepares for Major Donetsk Battles Under New Command

On September 8, Ukrainian officials warned that the coming months will bring “months of fierce fighting” over the eastern Donetsk region’s “fortress belt” cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The offensive is the first major test for newly appointed top general Mykhailo Drapatyi and the commanders he installed after replacing Oleksandr Syrskyi in July. Russian forces are reported to be less than 15 km (9 miles) from the two cities, intensifying strikes with drones and guided bombs as winter approaches.

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The reshuffle placed two of Ukraine’s most-known commanders in charge of the sector: Andrii Biletskyi, head of the Third Army Corps, and Denys Prokopenko, commander of the National Guard’s First Corps Azov. Biletskyi’s corps previously stabilized the front near Sloviansk, while Prokopenko’s Azov regiment repelled a major Russian assault near Dobropillia in 2025. Supporting them are Emil Ishkulov, an air-assault colonel leading the 11th Army Corps that covers Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and Pavlo Palisa, President Zelenskiy’s military adviser, who called the promotions “entirely logical.”

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As weather deteriorates, the effectiveness of Russian drones is expected to decline, prompting Moscow to seek mechanised assaults to restore mobility. Ukrainian defenses have already blunted a July assault near the besieged city of Dobropillia. Observers also point to a possible Ukrainian success near the town of Lyman, where Biletskyi’s corps may have cut a Russian salient, though details remain unclear.

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President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the war will continue through the winter, emphasizing the importance of holding Donetsk to protect Ukraine’s eastern defence line. President Vladimir Putin asserted earlier in the month that Russia is winning the war and that Ukrainian forces would “crumble.” Ukrainian Defence Minister Yevhenii Khmara and General Drapatyi have yet to resolve a draft system hampered by corruption and mismanagement, according to analysts.

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• “It's a situation which can still go many ways, and many scenarios are still on the table,” — Emil Kastehelmi, said military analyst

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• “As the weather conditions deteriorate, drones become less effective," said Kofman.” — Michael Kofman

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• “Generally it's difficult to see how the Russians would be able to achieve success beyond the tactical level,” — Emil Kastehelmi, said military analyst

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