Full Breakdown
Yashar Party Leads Latest Polls, but Coalition Prospects Remain Uncertain
9/9/2026, 5:14:06 PM
Core Event: Recent Polls Favor Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar Party Over Netanyahu’s Likud
Multiple surveys released in early September 2026 show former army chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party projected to win more seats than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. A Midgam poll for Channel 12 gave Yashar 25 seats versus Likud’s 21. A Lazar Research Institute poll reported by Maariv projected Yashar at 23 seats and Likud at 20. An Index research centre poll for Channel 13 placed Yashar at 22 seats and Likud at 21. All polls agree that neither bloc reaches the 61-seat threshold needed to form a government without additional partners.
Background & Context
Israel’s 120-member Knesset elects the government through coalition building; a party or bloc must secure at least 61 seats. The next general election is scheduled for October 27, 2026. Recent polls have highlighted the emergence of a new centrist-right alliance between Yoaz Hendel and economist Yaron Zelekha, projected to win four seats, and the fluctuating fortunes of far-right parties such as Religious Zionism and Ofer Winter’s People of Israel.
Data & Statistics
- Yashar party: 22–25 seats.
- Likud: 20–21 seats.
- Opposition bloc (Jewish parties): 51–57 seats.
- Netanyahu’s bloc: 47–53 seats.
- Arab parties: 12–14 seats.
- Hendel-Zelekha alliance: four seats.
- People of Israel (Ofer Winter): varies from four seats to below the threshold.
- Religious Zionism + Zehut: projected five to six seats.
Margins of error range from 4.2 % to 4.4 %, indicating that small shifts could alter seat totals.
Official Statements & Responses
The Lazar Research Institute noted its poll surveyed 600 Israelis with a 4.4-point margin of error. The Index centre reported a sample of 940 respondents and a 4.3-point margin of error. KAN’s poll, conducted among 551 Israelis, cited a 4.2-point margin of error. Each institute emphasized that results reflect current preferences and that final party lists are still being finalized.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on the exact size of both the opposition and Netanyahu’s blocs. The Lazar Research poll shows the opposition at 57 seats and Netanyahu’s bloc at 47, while the KAN poll places Netanyahu’s bloc ahead with 52 seats versus 51 for the opposition. The Index poll reports a tie at 53 seats each. Arab party seat counts also vary between 12 and 14. No poll provides a definitive indication of which bloc the Hendel-Zelekha alliance will ultimately support, leaving a key uncertainty for coalition calculations.
Why It Matters / Impact
Even if Yashar secures the most seats, forming a government requires coalition partners. The Hendel-Zelekha alliance could push the opposition bloc to a majority if it aligns with anti-Netanyahu parties. If the alliance remains neutral or sides with Netanyahu, both blocs would still fall short, potentially forcing reliance on Arab parties or prompting a new election. The volatility of smaller parties crossing or missing the threshold further amplifies the uncertainty.
What’s Next
Israel’s electorate will vote on October 27, 2026. Parties must submit final candidate lists by the statutory deadline two days before that date. Post-election coalition negotiations will determine whether any bloc can assemble the required 61 seats, or whether a caretaker government or new elections will be called.
