Full Breakdown
Raymond Greene Warns Taiwan Strait Conflict Could Outsize World War II Economy Shock
9/9/2026, 8:13:49 PM
Core Event
Scheduled for September 9, a defence forum in Taipei will host Raymond Greene, director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) and the United States’ de-facto ambassador on the island. Greene is expected to argue that any armed clash across the Taiwan Strait would generate a global economic disruption greater than that caused by World War II. He will also frame the forthcoming U.S.–China summit later in September as a chance to avert “misunderstandings and miscalculations.”
Background & Context
The United States does not maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which it regards as a democratic partner and its primary arms supplier. Beijing continues to claim sovereignty over the island and has not ruled out the use of force, preferring a “one-country, two-systems” arrangement that enjoys no support from major Taiwanese parties. Taiwan’s President William Lai Ching-te has responded by earmarking over NT$1 trillion (about US$31.8 billion) for defence spending in the 2027 budget, marking the first time the island’s annual defence budget has crossed the trillion-NT$ threshold.
Data & Statistics
| Metric | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Planned 2027 Taiwan defence budget | > NT$1 trillion (? US$31.8 billion) | multiple reports |
| Japanese private donations for Kumamoto earthquake relief | > NT$300 million (? US$9.5 million) | Taipei Times |
Official Statements & Responses
- Chen Binhua (Spokesperson, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office) – In a regular Beijing briefing, Chen will assert that “the reunification of the motherland is an unstoppable historical trend,” reiterating Beijing’s willingness to use force if necessary.
- Haruo Kitamura (Conservative Party of Japan, House of Councilors) – During a three-day visit to Taipei, Kitamura will describe Taiwan as “Japan’s most important friend” and argue that passing Japanese equivalents of the U.S.
Criticism & Opposition
China’s official stance, articulated by Chen Binhua, directly opposes the U.S. and Taiwanese emphasis on deterrence and diplomatic stability. The Chinese claim that reunification is an “unstoppable historical trend” underscores Beijing’s readiness to pursue force, contrasting sharply with Greene’s call for “vigorous” diplomacy and strategic stability.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The upcoming US-China summit is an opportunity to further advance a relationship of strategic stability, on the basis of fairness and reciprocity, that can avoid misunderstandings and miscalculations,” — Taiwan Raymond Greene, meeting with president
- “The reunification of the motherland is an unstoppable historical trend,” — Chen Binhua, a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office
- “The United States under the [US President Donald] Trump administration has made preserving peace in the Indo-Pacific one of its top priorities,” — Taiwan Raymond Greene, meeting with president
What’s Next
- The U.S.–China summit, scheduled for later in September, will provide the highest-level venue for both sides to discuss strategic stability in the Indo-Pacific.
- Taiwan plans to continue its defence modernization program throughout 2027, funded by the newly approved trillion-NT$ budget.
- Japan’s parliamentary delegation, led by Haruo Kitamura, will remain in Taipei for a three-day visit to explore legislative and security cooperation.
