Sinopec Projects 8.9% Drop in China’s Oil Demand for 2026

A report slated for September 9 by Reuters, citing the Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute, projects that China’s oil demand will fall by 600,000 barrels per day, or 8.9%, in 2026. The decline marks the third consecutive year of reduced consumption in the world’s largest crude importer.

Reuters

The institute estimates gasoline consumption will drop 8.7% to 149 million metric tons, diesel will fall 11.4% to 164 million tons, while jet-fuel demand is expected to rise 1.3% year-on-year to 41.55 million tons. The chemical sector, despite a >50% profit surge in the first seven months, faces an 8.0% year-on-year cut in ethylene-equivalent consumption because of high costs and inventory pressures.

Reuters

While total refining capacity is projected to reach 952 million tons per year (?19.04 million bpd) in 2026, tighter policy constraints and weaker demand are expected to accelerate the retirement of small- and medium-sized plants that together account for 80–100 million tons of capacity. Sinopec foresees the nation’s annual refining capacity shrinking to 900–910 million tons by the end of 2030.

Reuters

This figure differs slightly from the 8.9% decline cited by the research institute, highlighting a modest discrepancy between internal company reporting and its research arm’s forecast.

Reuters

“Due to the dampening effect of high oil prices on demand and accelerated substitution by new energy, domestic refined oil products consumption declined by 8.6% year on year, among which gasoline decreased by 7.9%, diesel decreased by 11.5%, while jet fuel (kerosene) rose by 1.3% driven by holiday travel and the recovery of international routes,” — China’s Sinopec

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