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Drive temperatures tied to 2% higher failure risk per °C

9/10/2026

5 1 Full Breakdown

Summary

Fans Lower Heat

Increasing fan speed lowered the six drives’ temperatures by roughly 2 °C.
Each 1 °C rise in average drive temperature raises failure risk by about 2 %.
Drives operating ten degrees hotter exhibit roughly a 23 % higher failure hazard.
The TrueNAS enclosure runs its CPU at 40-50 °C while drives stay between 27-31 °C.
All six SMART reports remain clean, though the cooling benefit’s impact on lifespan is uncertain.

Summary

HGST Outperforms

Researchers Siemroth and Park used a Cox hazards model to compare drive brand failure rates.
HGST’s adjusted hazard was 39.5% of Seagate’s baseline after controlling for age, capacity, temperature.
Western Digital’s hazard was 51.4% of Seagate’s, while Toshiba’s was 107%.
The study counted right-censored drives as survived, not failures, to avoid bias.
WD’s 2012 acquisition of HGST may explain the brands’ similar reliability metrics.

Summary

Author Consolidates

The author plans a full pool refresh by moving data onto fewer, higher-capacity drives.
The existing array uses 4 TB disks, while a pair of 16 TB drives could hold the entire dataset.
Reducing the disk count may lower vibration, power consumption, and heat generation.
The author warns that consolidation could change fault tolerance and outcomes may vary, noting “YMMV.”

History

Historical Context

In 2006 Google introduced a close-coupled cooling design that cut its data-center electricity use by about 30 % and lowered drive failures. This step foreshadowed moves toward lower power-usage-effectiveness, with Google reporting a PUE of 1.21 across six sites in October 2008 and achieving sub-1.06 PUE at its best locations by 2021, influencing standards such as the EPA Energy Star and the EU Code of Conduct.

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Fans Lower Heat

Increasing fan speed lowered the six drives’ temperatures by roughly 2 °C.
Each 1 °C rise in average drive temperature raises failure risk by about 2 %.
Drives operating ten degrees hotter exhibit roughly a 23 % higher failure hazard.
The TrueNAS enclosure runs its CPU at 40-50 °C while drives stay between 27-31 °C.
All six SMART reports remain clean, though the cooling benefit’s impact on lifespan is uncertain.

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