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Abbott and Hinojosa Deadlocked at 47% in Texas Poll

9/10/2026

11 2 Full Breakdown

Summary

Abbott Poll Tie

Gov. Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa are tied at 47% in a new poll.
The race could give Abbott a fourth term, potentially making him Texas’ longest-serving governor.
The N+ Univision/YouGov poll surveyed 1,000 Texas voters July 15-17 with a ±3.4% margin of error.
Hinojosa leads Abbott among independents by 5 points.
Hinojosa leads Abbott among moderates by 18 points.

Summary

Supreme Court Validates

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled Texas’ new congressional map constitutional in December 2025.
The map adds five Republican-targeted U.S. House seats in Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, and the Rio Grande Valley.
If elected, Gina Hinojosa would become Texas’ first Latina governor and the first Democrat in over 30 years.
The 15th House race shifted from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” after musician Bobby Pulido entered.

History

Historical Context

In 2003 the Republican-controlled Texas Legislature, led by Speaker Tom DeLay and Governor George W. Bush, enacted a mid-decade congressional redistricting that added three GOP-leaning districts, boosting Republican House seats from 17 to 21 in the 2004 election. The plan survived a 2006 Supreme Court challenge, establishing a precedent cited in the 2025 Court affirmation of today’s partisan map.

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Abbott Poll Tie

Gov. Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa are tied at 47% in a new poll.
The race could give Abbott a fourth term, potentially making him Texas’ longest-serving governor.
The N+ Univision/YouGov poll surveyed 1,000 Texas voters July 15-17 with a ±3.4% margin of error.
Hinojosa leads Abbott among independents by 5 points.
Hinojosa leads Abbott among moderates by 18 points.

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