Full Breakdown
U.S. Threats and Construction Surge at Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
Satellite analysis released in September 2026 shows a sharp increase in road and tunnel-portal activity at Pickaxe Mountain, a deep-buried granite complex about 2 km south of the Natanz uranium-enrichment facility. At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump has warned Tehran that further activity could trigger a U.S. strike.
Background & Context
Pickaxe Mountain (Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La) was identified after a 2020 sabotage of an above-ground centrifuge workshop at Natanz. Iranian officials announced plans to move sensitive nuclear work underground. The site was not hit during the February 2024 U.S.–Israeli strikes or the June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer. The United States and Israel have pressed Iran to dismantle its centrifuge program, while the IAEA has been unable to inspect the underground complex.
Data & Statistics
- Construction intensity: CSIS analysis of six years of SAR and optical imagery—including data from July 9 2026 and August 9 2026—shows a “clear surge” in road hardening and portal reinforcement.
- Depth: The tunnel network lies 80–100 m (about 328 ft) beneath granite, roughly 20 m deeper than the previously bombed Fordo site.
- U.S. preparatory work: An emergency $1.2 million contract for a “live-fire test” at White Sands Missile Range was signed on February 27; excavation began between February 16 and February 18, with a contractor estimate submitted on February 17.
Official Statements & Responses
- President Donald Trump warned that the United States may strike Pickaxe Mountain, describing any Iranian movement as “cute” behavior that would be met with a “very hard” response.
- IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi told Bloomberg that remote imagery shows movement but the agency has no on-site verification and cannot confirm nuclear work.
Criticism & Opposition
Iran’s representative to the IAEA accused the watchdog of being used as a “tool of war,” arguing that recent resolutions were driven by U.S. pressure after the June 2025 strikes. The diplomat warned that the IAEA’s censure would not change Iran’s nuclear posture.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Israeli intelligence claims Iran moved uranium centrifuges into Pickaxe Mountain in fall 2024. CSIS analysts say their satellite data “cannot refute nor substantiate” this claim, leaving a gap between intelligence assertions and open-source verification. The IAEA observes surface movement but lacks concrete evidence of underground activities.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We notice there’s a little activity at Pickaxe. I would advise Iran not to get cute because we will have to hit them very hard,” — Donald Trump
- “We may hit Pickaxe very soon,” — Donald Trump
- “They said at the time, ‘We are going to put everything in tunnels, inside a mountain’,” — Rafael Grossi
What’s Next
The United States is conducting a “planning sprint” on potential strikes while developing a successor to the Massive Ordnance Penetrator. The IAEA’s Board of Governors has referred Iran’s nuclear file to the United Nations Security Council, raising the prospect of further diplomatic or military actions. Ongoing satellite monitoring and any future IAEA inspection missions will be critical to determining whether construction progresses toward operational nuclear capability.
