Full Breakdown
Likud’s Reserved Slots and Poll Fragmentation Ahead of Israel’s 2026 Knesset Election
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Election Landscape and Party List Submissions
Israel’s 2026 Knesset election is set for October 27. After parties submitted their slates, five opinion polls showed a fragmented race. Four polls placed Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party ahead, while an i24NEWS poll on September 9 2026 showed Likud leading with 27 seats. Pro-Netanyahu and Zionist opposition blocs were projected to split roughly 53 seats each.
Background & Context
The deadline for party lists coincided with the election day. Likud announced “reserved slots” for candidates chosen directly by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, including reservist Elisha Medan (No. 15), the mother of fallen soldier Talik Gvili (No. 9), commentator Yaakov Bardugo (No. 11), and attorney David Peter (No. 16). Opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot called the move a “distribution of spoils” for loyalists.
Data & Statistics
- i24NEWS poll (Sept 9 2026): Likud 27; Yashar 22; B’Yachad 10; Democrats 9; United Torah Judaism & Otzma Yehudit 8 each; Joint List, Yisrael Beytenu, Shas 7 each; Religious Zionism–Zehut 6; Ra’am 5; Amcha 4.
- Average of five polls: Yashar 23.6; Likud 21.8; B’Yachad 12.4; Democrats 9.4; Yisrael Beytenu 8; United Torah Judaism 7.8; Otzma Yehudit 7.4; Joint List 7.2; Shas 7; Religious Zionism & Zehut 5.4 each; Ra’am 5; People of Israel 4.2.
- Threshold: People of Israel cleared the 3.25 % threshold in all polls; the Reservists and Economic party hovered around 2.7 % and crossed only in the KAN News poll (4 seats).
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on which bloc leads. Four surveys favor the Zionist opposition (52–57 seats), while the i24NEWS poll gives Netanyahu’s bloc a clear edge (Likud 27 seats, projected 60 seats with allies). No poll definitively predicts which coalition will reach the 61-seat majority needed to govern.
Official Statements & Responses
Likud announced a criminal investigation into journalists, opposition politicians, and *Haaretz* after a report claimed UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed warned Netanyahu before the October 7 2023 Hamas attack. The party alleged senior Palestinian figure Mohammed Dahlan sought to use the report to undermine the government and promote a coalition that would withdraw forces from Gaza. Likud also suggested links between opposition leaders Gadi Eisenkot, Yair Golan, and Avigdor Lieberman and the alleged foreign influence, though no evidence was presented. Netanyahu’s office denied receiving any warning and said it would sue *Haaretz* for defamation.
Verbatim Quotes
What’s Next
The October 27 election will decide whether Likud can form a governing coalition, likely needing alliances with Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and the Religious Zionism–Zehut bloc. Likud’s investigation into alleged foreign interference is expected to proceed through Israel’s legal system in the weeks following the vote.
