Full Breakdown
UK-France “One-in-One-out” Deal Faces Renewal Uncertainty
By Drooid · · How we work
Deal at Risk and Burnham’s Appeal
The “one-in-one-out” arrangement, under which France returns illegal Channel crossings to the UK in exchange for an equal number of approved asylum seekers, is set to expire at the end of the month. In response, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham made a direct appeal to President Emmanuel Macron, urging him to commit to renewing the agreement.
Migration Numbers Since the Deal’s Start
Official figures show that by the start of this month 1,400 migrants had been returned to France and the same number transferred to the UK, representing roughly four percent of the total small-boat arrivals since the deal began on August 6 last year. In total, 32,549 migrants arrived by boat in that period. For the current year, 17,281 arrivals have been recorded—a 43 percent drop compared with the same time last year and the lowest summer crossing levels since 2020.
Official Statements & Extensions
A Home Office spokesman confirmed that the agreement with France has been extended until autumn, ensuring continued removals of small-boat migrants over the summer. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said the extension would sustain the deterrent effect and allow further cooperation with European partners.
New UK-Belgium Intelligence Deal
On Wednesday, Mahmood and Belgian Interior Minister Bernard Quintin signed a law-enforcement intelligence-sharing pact. The deal enables Belgian officers to join the existing UK-France intelligence cell in northern France and aims to disrupt smuggling networks that operate across borders.
Outlook and Potential Impact
If the French government decides against a permanent renewal, the UK may rely more heavily on bilateral arrangements such as the new UK-Belgium pact to curb crossings. Continued declines in arrivals suggest the current framework is having a deterrent effect, but political pressures in France and the approaching election could reshape the partnership.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Belgian Interior Minister Bernard Quintin and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood signed the UK-Belgium Law Enforcement | PA Speaking about the deal, the Home Secretary said: "This agreement will help UK and Belgian police tighten the net around the criminal gangs behind small boat crossings.” — Home Secretary — Home Secretary
