Full Breakdown
Rising seas set to cost Australia $855 bn by 2100
By Drooid · · How we work
Overview of the projected threat
A Climate Council report released in September 2026 estimates that sea-level rise will generate $855 billion in economic losses across Australia by the end of the century, including $274 billion in property losses and $580 billion in land-use damages. The analysis, based on an “intermediate” emissions scenario, foresees 267,000 coastal properties and 2 million hectares of farmland and natural areas being flooded. Queensland, New South Wales and Western Australia account for the greatest number of at-risk homes, while the Gold Coast alone faces $84.4 billion in projected losses.
Background & Context
The report combines sea-level rise modelling with storm-surge and tidal-inundation data under the RCP 4.5 pathway. It assumes a 14 cm rise is already locked in for Australia by 2050, with a total rise of roughly 55 cm by 2100. Researchers from the University of Melbourne, the Australian National University and Global Environmental and Economic Modelling co-authored the study, with Professor Tom Kompas leading the economic modelling.
Key Figures
- Peter Lake – grazier in the Clarence Valley, NSW, whose 130-acre farm has flooded repeatedly.
- Tom Kompas – professor of environmental economics at the University of Melbourne, co-author of the report.
- Andrew Watkins – climate councillor for the Climate Council.
Data & Statistics
- $855 billion total projected cost.
- $274 billion in property losses.
- $580 billion in land-use damages.
- 267,000 properties at risk.
- 2 million hectares of land projected to flood.
- 14 cm of sea-level rise locked in by 2050.
- Queensland: 93,157 properties; New South Wales: 71,210; Western Australia: 51,366.
On-the-Ground Impacts
Peter Lake’s farm now has only about 15 acres of usable land after repeated flooding. In Inverloch, Victoria, the local surf-lifesaving club, built in 2010, now relies on sandbags after more than 70 m of foreshore vanished since 2012. Photos from May 25 and July 6 show rapid shoreline retreat at Lancelin Sands Hotel, Western Australia.
Official Statements & Responses
Professor Tom Kompas described the cost figures as “conservative” because they exclude coastal erosion and ice-sheet melt, warning that agricultural losses could trigger a food-security challenge, with 619,713 hectares of farming land affected. He called for “no-build zones” and managed retreat, noting that sea walls are “costly last resorts.”
Verbatim Quotes
- “If we’re going to have more frequent and more severe major events … we need to change the way we think about how we manage,” — Peter Lake
- “For every 10 centimetres of sea level rise, you basically triple the number of extreme events – those things that you would normally only get once in 100 years or so,” — Dr Andrew Watkins
What’s Next
The Climate Council recommends coordinated adaptation plans, zoning reforms, resilient infrastructure investment and accelerated decarbonisation. It also urges closing loopholes in the Safeguard Mechanism and removing tax breaks for polluting diesel to limit future economic damage.
