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Hong Kong Home Prices Project 15% Year-End Rise, Midland Realty Forecast
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Market Forecast and Drivers
Midland Realty, a local property agency, projects that Hong Kong’s residential prices will close the year about 15 % higher than a year earlier, though still roughly 16 % below the 2021 peak. The outlook rests on the expectation that Hong Kong banks are unlikely to mirror any Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes this year, a view presented by the agency’s executives at a recent press conference.
Recent Transaction Trends
First-hand sales fell for two consecutive months, dropping to just over 800 units in June and July, before rebounding to roughly 1,100 units in August. Midland’s data show a similar gradual stabilization in the secondary market. The agency anticipates first-hand transactions in the final quarter to rise 50 % quarter-on-quarter to about 5,100 units, while secondary-market activity is expected to increase 10 % to roughly 12,700 units.
Implications for Developers and Renters
Dave Ma Tai-yeung, CEO of Midland (Residential), said the market is gradually digesting geopolitical and external-economic uncertainties, prompting developers to speed up new project launches. He added that rising residential rents—reaching new highs repeatedly—create space for property prices to catch up with rental growth.
Outlook and Uncertainties
While the forecast is buoyant, Midland notes that lingering geopolitical tensions and broader economic headwinds could still influence sentiment. The agency expects improved market confidence to sustain the recovery, but acknowledges that any shift in external conditions could affect the trajectory of both transaction volumes and price growth.
