Full Breakdown
Farmers' Almanac Unveils First-Snowfall Guide for the 2026-27 Winter Season
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: New Climatological Map Shows Typical First Snow Across the United States
The 200-year-old Farmers' Almanac released its 2026-27 first-snowfall guide in early September. The map divides the lower 48 states into five timing zones, ranging from August–September in the highest northern mountains to December–January in the Deep South and Gulf Coast. It is presented as a broad climatological reference, not a forecast for any specific storm.
Background & Context: El Niño Influence and Almanac Methodology
Forecasters note that a developing “super” El Niño is expected to dominate the winter of 2026-27. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reported a greater than 90 % chance of a very strong El Niño during the fall and winter, a pattern that can shift jet-stream routes and alter storm tracks. The Almanac’s outlook cites the same phenomenon, warning of wetter conditions to the southern tier and milder, variable weather to the north.
The Almanac’s methodology remains proprietary. Its website describes a formula that blends sunspot cycles, lunar position, tidal pull, and historical pattern weighting, unchanged since its founding in 1818.
Data & Statistics: Regional Timing and Historical Extremes
- Northern Rockies & Plains – August–September window for the highest elevations of Montana, Wyoming, Idaho and Washington.
- Upper Midwest & Great Lakes – October is typical; Twin Cities and Buffalo average a first measurable snowfall in early November.
- Great Lakes & Interior Northeast – November is most common.
- Central Plains, Ohio Valley & Mid-Atlantic – Late November to December.
- Deep South, Gulf Coast & Desert Southwest – Snow, if it occurs, is expected in December or January, and many locations may see none.
Historical extremes illustrate variability. Great Falls, Montana recorded its earliest first measurable snowfall on August 22, 1992. Denver’s earliest measurable snow fell on September 3, 1961, with an average around October 18. Dallas’s earliest recorded first snowfall was November 13, 1976, and Charleston, South Carolina’s was December 11, 1958.
Official Statements & Responses
— “Keep the snow shovel, rain boots, and ice scraper close at hand. This winter, you may need all three,” — Caleb Weatherbee, official forecaster for the Almanac
The Almanac reports an 80 %–85 % accuracy rate for its regional outlooks, a figure it repeats in its press release.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The Almanac’s self-reported 80 %–85 % accuracy contrasts with independent reviews that place actual performance closer to 50 %. No single source provides definitive validation of the methodology, leaving a gap between the publication’s confidence and external verification.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Keep the snow shovel, rain boots, and ice scraper close at hand. This winter, you may need all three,” — Caleb Weatherbee, official forecaster for the Almanac
What’s Next
Meteorologists will monitor the evolving El Niño and early-season storms to see how closely actual snowfall timing aligns with the Almanac’s guide. The National Weather Service and regional climate centers will provide real-time observations for comparison throughout the coming months.
