Full Breakdown
Poll Landscape Ahead of Israel’s Oct. 27 Knesset Election
By Drooid · · How we work
Background & Context
Five opinion polls released after party-list filings sampled 506–4,329 respondents, with margins of error between 4 and 4.4 points. Of the 38 parties that submitted lists, pollsters estimate about 13 will clear the 3.25 % threshold.
Data & Statistics
- Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot) – 22–25 seats; aggregate average 23.6.
- Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu) – 19–27 seats; aggregate average 21.8.
- Together (Naftali Bennett) – 10–13 seats.
- Democrats – 9–11 seats.
- United Torah Judaism – 7–8 seats.
- Otzma Yehudit – 7–8 seats.
- Joint List (Arab parties) – 5–7 seats; United Arab List (Ra’am) – 4–5 seats.
- People of Israel (Ofer Winter) – 4–5 seats, above threshold in all polls.
- Reservists and Economic (Yoaz Hendel & Yaron Zelekha) – 1.4 %–2.9 % of the vote, crossing the threshold only in the KAN News poll (4 seats).
Bloc-level projections: opposition bloc (excluding Arab parties) 52–58 seats; Netanyahu’s governing bloc 50–60 seats; Arab parties 11–12 seats. No party reaches the 61 seats needed for an outright majority.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Yashar vs. Likud Lead: Four polls rank Yashar first (22–25 seats); the i24NEWS poll puts Likud ahead with 27 seats.
- Bloc Totals: i24NEWS gives Netanyahu’s bloc 56 seats; Channel 12 projects it at 52 seats.
- Threshold Crossings: The Reservists and Economic list is below the threshold in most surveys but clears it in the KAN News poll.
- Margin of Error Details: Only the Lazar Research poll (Sept. 9-10, 4,329 respondents) specifies a 4-point margin; the Walla poll notes a 4.4-point maximum error; other surveys omit error ranges.
These inconsistencies create uncertainty about which parties will enter the Knesset and how coalition math will shape negotiations.
Why It Matters
Both the opposition and Netanyahu’s blocs fall short of the 61-seat majority, implying any governing coalition must combine parties across ideological lines—ultra-Orthodox, right-wing religious, and centrist groups. The fragmented distribution increases the likelihood of extended coalition talks.
What's Next
Israel’s general election is set for Oct. 27, 2026. Polls suggest coalition negotiations will begin immediately after the vote as parties work to assemble the required 61 seats.
