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UK Thinktank Calls for Early Tax on Autonomous Vehicles to Fund Job Transition
By Drooid · · How we work
Proposed Autonomous Vehicle Tax and Rationale
The Centre for British Progress, a non-partisan think-tank, has released a report urging the UK government to introduce a levy on self-driving cars now, before they become widespread. The analysis estimates that a charge of roughly 88 pence per mile—designed to reflect the social cost of congestion—could raise about £47 billion annually by 2050. Those revenues would help replace fuel-duty income, which currently totals around £27 billion a year and is expected to vanish as electric vehicles dominate the market. The report warns that widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles could endanger hundreds of thousands of private-hire and taxi jobs, noting that England employs roughly 417,000 drivers in that sector (including about 121,000 in London).
Context of Autonomous Vehicle Rollout
London’s first robotaxi services began this month, with Uber partnering with the British firm Wayve to operate limited autonomous rides. International competitors such as Google’s Waymo and China’s Baidu are also seeking entry, while Europe’s inaugural fully driverless taxi trial launched recently in Zagreb, Croatia. The Department for Transport projects a 24 percent increase in road mileage by 2050 as highly automated driving expands, raising concerns about heightened congestion and reduced road speeds.
Official Government and Industry Perspectives
Government ministers have framed autonomous vehicles as a “transformative opportunity,” highlighting expectations of thousands of new jobs and billions of pounds in economic output by 2035. Sarah Gates, vice-president of global affairs and assurance at Wayve, argues that imposing a sector-specific tax at this early stage would undermine the UK’s growth agenda and penalise its most promising innovators. Uber declined to comment on the tax proposal.
Quantitative Outlook and Fiscal Implications
David Lawrence, a co-author of the think-tank report, points to the historical experience of fuel-duty introduction in 1909 as evidence that early taxation can avoid later political battles. He also notes that even if the bulk of tax revenue materialises decades from now, the prospect of future income can influence bond-market expectations and current fiscal headroom. The proposed levy therefore aims to secure a revenue stream that offsets the projected loss of fuel-duty funds while cushioning the employment impact of autonomous-vehicle deployment.
