Full Breakdown
Green Party Leader Zack Polanski vs Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali in the Holborn & St Pancras By-Election
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: By-Election Triggered by Sir Keir Starmer’s Resignation
The Holborn & St Pancras seat became vacant after Sir Keir Starmer announced on 1 September that he was standing down as an MP. A by-election is set for 8 October; nominations close on 15 September at 16:00 BST.
Background & Context
Labour has held the constituency since 1983. In the 2024 general election Starmer won with 48.9 % and an 11,572-vote majority; the Greens took 10.4 %. The May 2025 local elections saw the Green Party increase its Camden council representation from one to 10 seats, indicating growing local support.
Key Figures
- Zack Polanski – Green Party leader and London Assembly member, selected as the Green candidate.
- Sagal Abdi-Wali – Labour’s candidate, leader of Camden Council and former child refugee from Somalia.
- Hannah Spencer – Green MP for Gorton and Denton, announced the selection outcome.
- Andy Burnham – Prime Minister; his government’s handling of a North Sea gas field is a campaign issue.
- Andrew Bowie – Shadow Energy Secretary, warned against postponing the Jackdaw field decision.
Timeline
- 1 Sept – Starmer resigns.
- 10 Sept – Green members vote; Polanski beats councillor Hamza Chowdhury.
- 11 Sept – Spencer says the vote was “overwhelmingly” for Polanski.
- 15 Sept – Nomination deadline.
- 8 Oct – By-election.
Data & Statistics
- 2024 vote share: Labour 48.9 %, Independent 18.9 %, Greens 10.4 %, Conservatives 7.2 %, Reform 6.1 %, Lib Dem 5.8 % (source 12).
- Camden Green seats: 1 -> 10 (source 6).
- Leaked Labour poll for London: Labour 27 %, Greens 17 % (source 10).
- Internal Labour poll shows a decline in Polanski’s ratings on strength, trustworthiness and patriotism since Dec 2025 (source 9).
Official Statements & Responses
- Hannah Spencer said local members “overwhelmingly” chose Polanski.
- A Green Party spokesperson thanked Labour for “providing us with free polling,” framing the Greens as the main challenger (source 10).
Criticism & Opposition
- Reform UK candidate Zia Yusuf questioned Abdi-Wali’s background; Polanski called the remarks “despicable” and pledged solidarity (source 7).
- Polanski was criticised for reposting an X post about police conduct after the Golders Green terror attack; the Metropolitan Police Commissioner and the Prime Minister rebuked him, and he later apologised (source 10).
- A leaked Labour poll shows Greens slipping to 17 % in London, suggesting waning momentum (source 9).
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Popularity trends: YouGov data suggested Polanski was more popular than unpopular nationally until May 2026, while the Labour internal poll shows a sharp decline in his London ratings after recent controversies. The two data sets are not directly comparable.
- Energy-policy impact: Sources note the government may delay the Jackdaw gas-field decision until after the by-election, but no official timetable has been given, leaving the issue’s electoral effect uncertain.
What’s Next
The 8 October by-election will test Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s popularity and the Greens’ ability to turn council gains into a parliamentary seat. No further events have been announced beyond election day.