Full Breakdown
GOP Money Floods Texas Senate Race: Paxton vs. Talarico
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
In the final weeks of the 2026 midterm cycle, a coalition of Republican-aligned super PACs injected more than $50 million in television advertising into the Texas U.S. Senate contest between incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Representative James Talarico. The surge follows weeks of tight polling that showed Paxton trailing or dead-locked with Talarico, prompting the Senate Leadership Fund, President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc., and Elon Musk’s America PAC to coordinate unprecedented spending in a state that has historically been a GOP stronghold.
Background & Context
Paxton secured the Republican nomination after a contentious runoff against Senator John Cornyn, a race in which President Trump’s endorsement proved decisive. Historically, outside GOP groups avoided the Texas race, citing Paxton’s legal and ethical controversies and the high cost of media markets. The recent cash influx marks a reversal, with Senate leaders describing the move as essential to preserving the party’s Senate majority.
Data & Statistics
- Advertising purchases: Texas PAC (affiliated with the Senate Leadership Fund) booked roughly $32 million in broadcast slots; MAGA Inc. contributed $10 million; America PAC added $2.6 million in voter-contact work.
- Total GOP out-of-campaign spend: Approximately $75 million, according to AdImpact, not counting the $10 million disclosed by Trump’s super PAC and the $2 million-plus from Musk’s effort.
- Candidate cash on hand: Federal filings show Talarico’s campaign holding about $21.5 million, while Paxton’s campaign reports roughly $17 million.
- Poll averages: Recent surveys from multiple outlets place Talarico ahead by margins ranging from 1 to 6 points, with several polls within their margins of error.
Official Statements & Responses
A spokesperson for Senate Majority PAC, Christyna Thompson, criticized the late-stage spending, describing Paxton as a “scam artist” forced onto the ticket by Trump’s influence.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polling data diverge: a Fox News poll conducted at the end of July showed Talarico leading 51 % to 48 %; an AARP-sponsored poll cited by Politico placed Paxton slightly behind; and an August University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll showed a 42 %–39 % split. No single poll has emerged as a clear outlier, leaving the exact state of the race ambiguous.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I’ll be coming back to Texas, because we have to elect Ken Paxton,” — President Trump, buydisclosed by president
- “I said I'm not sure if I like your look,” — President Trump, buydisclosed by president
- “As the Democrat Party gets pulled further to the left, extreme candidates like James Talarico are becoming the norm,” — Majority Leader John Thune
- “He may not dress right. He may not talk exactly perfectly, and he may not be the best-looking guy I've ever seen,” — President Trump, buydisclosed by president
- “In response to Trump's speech and the president's support of Paxton, Talarico campaign spokesperson JT Ennis told USA TODAY that the contrast couldn't be clearer between the two candidates "Paxton's record of raising costs and rampant corruption is on full display as working Texans struggle to afford gas, groceries, and healthcare," Ennis said.” — S. Senate. Ennis, talarico campaign spokesperson