Full Breakdown
Sweden’s September 13 Election: Will the Far-Right Sweden Democrats Enter Government?
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
On September 13 Swedes vote in a parliamentary election that will decide whether Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s right-wing bloc—Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals and the Sweden Democrats (SD)—remains in power with SD in the cabinet, or whether the centre-left opposition led by former prime minister Magdalena Andersson forms a new government. The outcome will determine if Sweden sees its first SD ministers.
Background & Context
The Sweden Democrats, founded in the 1980s, have been led by Jimmie Åkesson since 2005. After entering parliament in 2010, SD became the second-largest party in 2022 and has supported Kristersson’s minority government under the “Tidö Agreement,” influencing immigration and crime policy. In April 2024 Kristersson announced he would give SD ministerial posts if the bloc wins a majority.
Data & Statistics
- Indikator Opinion survey (Sept 2-10) gave the centre-left bloc 50.8 % vs 47.6 % for the right-wing bloc.
- Dagens Nyheter/Ipsos poll showed a 0.3-point lead for the left, translating to 175 seats for Andersson’s bloc against 174 for Kristersson’s.
- Reuters-cited Ekot poll reported the same percentages; another Reuters poll placed the Social Democrats at 28.6 % and the Sweden Democrats at 18.3 %.
- Sweden has about 8 million eligible voters; turnout historically exceeds 80 %.
Why It Matters
A government that includes SD would push stricter immigration limits and cultural policies favoring “Swedish-only” norms, raising concerns about Sweden’s human-rights reputation and its role in the EU. A left-wing administration would likely keep higher welfare spending but must manage internal disagreements over tax policy, nuclear energy and immigration reform.
Official Statements & Responses
Kristersson said the bloc’s record on reducing gang violence and curbing immigration “has achieved its intended results.” She framed the election as a choice between a government “dominated by the Sweden Democrats” and one led by her, promising to bolster the welfare state.
Criticism & Opposition
Former Centre Party minister Birgitta Ohlsson warned that SD’s influence would be “ten times worse” than when they were outside government. Kahin Ahmed, a Somali-born sociologist, emphasized that “immigrants contribute to society” and condemned SD’s targeting of Muslims. SD’s platform calls for banning the niqab and burqa, drawing criticism from human-rights observers.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on the left’s lead: Indikator Opinion shows a 3.2-point advantage, while Dagens Nyheter/Ipsos suggests a 0.3-point margin. Seat projections also vary, with estimates ranging from 175-180 seats for the left and 169-174 for the right. No source provides a definitive timetable for coalition negotiations, leaving the exact timeline for government formation uncertain.
What’s Next
Exit polls are due after polls close at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT), with the first reliable results expected several hours later. SVT will release a forecast an hour after the exit polls, and the preliminary vote count is slated for 10:30-11 p.m. (local time). If the right-wing bloc secures a majority, forming a government should be straightforward; if the left wins, coalition talks could extend for weeks or months.