Record-High Support for a UK Return to the EU, Poll Shows

Professor Sir John Curtice, the United Kingdom’s leading polling expert, told The Independent that 61 percent of British adults now say they would vote to re-join the European Union, while 39 percent would prefer to stay out. Among those who voted “Leave” in the 2016 referendum, only about 18 percent would now support re-joining, compared with 11 percent of former “Remain” voters who would still oppose it. Curtice noted that the rise is driven in part by a decade-old cohort that was too young to vote in 2016 and is now heavily in favour of re-joining, as well as the gradual attrition of older, more-likely-Leave voters.

The Independent

The poll’s surge reflects demographic changes: younger voters, who now form a larger share of the electorate, overwhelmingly back re-entry, while the death of older, predominantly Leave-leaning voters also nudges the balance. Curtice emphasized that, aside from the Green Party and nationalist groups, most political parties have offered little public advocacy for re-joining. He warned that the framing of any future referendum argument will be decisive, urging parties to craft a compelling case rather than remain silent.

The Independent

In the interview, Curtice argued that “other things being equal, yes” the upward trend is likely to continue. He suggested that if political leaders begin to articulate a clear, well-reasoned argument for re-joining, public support could rise further. He also cautioned that Labour’s current “keep quiet” approach may limit its ability to win over working-class and former Leave voters in the upcoming 2024 election cycle.

The Independent

• “Public opinion has shifted quite considerably, partly for demographic reasons, even though prior to 2024, apart from the Greens and the nationalists, nobody was arguing in favour of rejoining,” — Sir John, professor

The Independent