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Full Breakdown

Cardiff Summit Seeks Joint Push for Independence Referendums in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

By Drooid · · How we work

Core Event: Party Leaders Sign a Memorandum of Understanding

The meeting also included Mary Lou McDonald, president of Sinn Féin and leader of the opposition in the Republic of Ireland. Participants acted as party leaders rather than as holders of devolved executive office.

Background & Context

The summit follows recent developments that have revived constitutional debate across the UK’s devolved nations. Successive UK governments have ruled out further independence referendums since Scotland’s 2014 vote. In early September, Prime Minister Andy Burnham reiterated that a repeat Scottish referendum remained “off limits” after a brief misstatement during Prime Minister’s Questions. The same week, former U.S. President Donald Trump voiced support for Irish unity during a visit to Ireland, prompting a rebuttal from Westminster and unionist officials in Northern Ireland.

Official Statements & Responses

  • Prime Minister Andy Burnham sent a letter to John Swinney confirming that a Scottish referendum is “off limits” until a clear consensus emerges, echoing his earlier statement that no “majority of support for independence” exists in Scotland.

Conflicting Reports & Gaps

Polling data on support for independence differ across sources. No source provides definitive, up-to-date figures for Wales or Northern Ireland beyond the percentages above, leaving the overall level of consensus unclear.

Verbatim Quotes

  • “The 2024 manifesto on which Labour secured its parliamentary majority was unambiguous: ‘Labour does not support independence or another referendum.’ As I made clear to you personally when we met recently in Glasgow, independence and a referendum are off limits as it would take our focus away from growing the economy and helping families with the cost of living” — Andy Burnham, prime minister
  • “The trouble is that the opinion polls at the moment, and certainly during the election and subsequently, suggest there is at least a small majority in favour of independence.” — Prof Sir John Curtice, polling guru