Europe’s Liberal Centre and the Surge of the Far-Right: How Policy Shifts Fueled the AfD’s Rise

Commentators note that far-right parties across Europe are gaining electoral ground, with Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) achieving a breakthrough in Saxony-Anhalt. Rafael Behr highlighted on September 9 that the combination of far-right parties, “Maga”-style populism, and Kremlin influence poses a serious threat to liberal democracies. The following day, on September 8, analysts described the AfD’s success as “seismic,” arguing it reflects deeper systemic failures rather than a sudden rupture.

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According to Benjamin Selwyn, the liberal centre’s embrace of Thatcher- and Reagan-era market reforms weakened trade unions and eroded workers’ bargaining power. Subsequent centre-left governments, under the banner of the “third way,” expanded labour-market insecurity, promoted financialisation, and allowed private interests deeper access to public services. This economic restructuring, Selwyn argues, drove social and economic inequality upward.

The Guardian

Jörg Lau adds that the liberal centre increasingly relied on policing, surveillance, and legal restrictions to manage dissent—from anti-globalisation protests after 2008 to recent pro-Palestinian mobilisations. In Germany, the post-war consensus unraveled as former Nazi officials retained influence in state institutions until the 1970s. While brief periods of reckoning occurred under leaders such as Willy Brandt, a top-down remembrance culture later reinforced a “nanny-state” mentality, especially in eastern states like Saxony-Anhalt. An ageing population and stagnant economy now strain the social safety net, creating fertile ground for extremist narratives.

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• Rafael Behr – commentator on European politics, warns of far-right and Kremlin threats.

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• Benjamin Selwyn – professor of international relations at the University of Sussex, critiques the liberal centre’s role.

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• Jörg Lau – scholar who links policing and surveillance to the suppression of dissent.

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• Friedrich Merz – AfD leader described as a product of decades of missed opportunities.

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• Dr Michael Esser – commentator suggesting historic public-order legislation could curb extremist street actions.

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• William Ward – commentator proposing the 1936 Public Order Act as a model to address modern protest tactics.

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The combined analysis suggests that the liberal centre’s policy choices—deregulation, weakened labour protections, and reliance on security apparatuses—have generated prolonged economic insecurity and declining trust in institutions. Selwyn and Lau argue that these conditions enable the AfD to channel public anger into xenophobic nationalism. The commentators warn that if mainstream parties in Berlin continue to overlook systemic neglect, the political landscape could experience a more profound collapse, with the far right filling the void left by a hollowed-out liberal centre.

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The pieces conclude that the AfD’s rise is not an isolated shock but a symptom of long-standing structural decay. Commentators call for a reassessment of centre-left policies and a reinvigoration of democratic participation to prevent further erosion of Europe’s liberal foundations.

The Guardian