Full Breakdown
Delhi and North India Brace for Heavy Rain Ahead of the BRICS Summit
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Core Weather Event
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued alerts for heavy rain, thunderstorms and gusty winds across the National Capital Region (NCR) and adjoining states. On September 11 the agency warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall in several districts, with isolated totals of 115.6 mm–204.4 mm. For September 12 the forecast shifted to very light to light rain with thunderstorms in Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh and Punjab. From September 13-17 the IMD expects isolated heavy rain in the same belt, with a broader spell of widespread rain and thunderstorms on September 16-17. Wind gusts of 30-40 km ph are anticipated across Delhi, rising to 60 km ph in parts of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.
Background & Context
The system is driven by a low-pressure area over the north-west Bay of Bengal moving west-northwestwards, pulling moisture inland. It is typical of the later phase of the southwest monsoon, which the IMD expects to withdraw from Delhi after September 21, possibly a few days later this year. The monsoon has been below normal, with cumulative rainfall of 662.3 mm recorded across India from 1 June to 12 September, versus the normal 778.6 mm.
Timeline
| Date (status) | Forecast / Observation |
|---|---|
| September 11 (occurred) | Heavy to very heavy rain (115.6-204.4 mm); thunderstorms and strong winds. |
| September 12 (occurred) | Very light to light rain with thunderstorms; max 30-32 °C, min 24-26 °C. |
| September 13 (scheduled) | Isolated heavy rain expected in Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh and Punjab. |
| September 14 (occurred) | Partly cloudy; very light to light rain; max ? 35 °C, min ? 26 °C. |
| September 15 (scheduled) | Generally cloudy with light rain in the morning and evening. |
| September 16-17 (scheduled) | Widespread rain with thunderstorms across Delhi-NCR and Punjab. |
| September 21 (scheduled) | Expected withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from Delhi. |
| September 19 (scheduled) | Continued widespread rain and thunderstorms across much of India. |
Data & Statistics
- Rainfall potential on September 11 reached up to 204.4 mm in isolated locations.
- Delhi’s maximum temperature on September 10 was 36.6 °C; forecasts predict highs around 32-35 °C.
- Minimum temperatures are expected near 24-26 °C, slightly below seasonal normals.
- Wind gusts of 30-40 km ph are forecast for Delhi, up to 60 km ph in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.
- The monsoon deficit as of 12 September is 116.3 mm below the long-term average.
Official Statements & Responses
- District-level nowcasts issued a red alert for Delhi on September 12, warning of moderate to heavy rain until 5 p.m.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on the intensity of rain expected for Delhi on September 12. Some outlets forecast “very light to light” rain, while others mention “moderate to heavy” rain in parts of the city. Both assessments cite IMD bulletins, indicating variability in localized forecasts.
What’s Next
The IMD projects continued rain activity across Delhi and surrounding states through September 17, with isolated heavy showers possible until the monsoon’s withdrawal after September 21. Residents should monitor local updates and heed district-level warnings, especially in low-lying areas prone to water-logging.