Full Breakdown
Modi-Xi Bilateral Meeting at the 18th BRICS Summit: A Cautious Thaw in Indo-Chinese Relations
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
On September 12, 2026, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi. The two-hour dialogue was Xi’s first visit to India in seven years and the third consecutive year the leaders have held face-to-face talks. Both emphasized a “strategic and long-term perspective” and pledged to keep “peace and tranquility” along their disputed Himalayan border as a basis for broader cooperation.
Background & Context
Relations soured after the 2020 Galwan Valley clash that killed 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers. Since then, both sides have kept sizable military deployments and pursued parallel diplomatic tracks: India through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, China via the Belt and Road Initiative, while each also deepened ties with the United States and other powers. Prior meetings in 2024 (Kazan) and 2025 (Tianjin) set the stage for the September 2026 encounter, which occurred amid a BRICS push on global governance, trade and the war in West Asia.
Data & Statistics
- Bilateral trade: Chinese customs data cited by Reuters reported a record $155.6 billion in 2025, with China supplying $132 billion of imports to India in FY 2025/26.
- Trade deficit: Indian sources noted a deficit of over $100 billion, while CNBC put the deficit at $112.16 billion for the year ending March 2026, up from $99.21 billion the previous year.
- Border length: The two nuclear-armed neighbours share a roughly 3,800 km (2,400-mile) frontier that remains largely unmarked.
Official Statements & Responses
- Modi (foreign-ministry statement) stressed that “peace and tranquility” in the border areas is essential for bilateral development and urged both sides to honor existing agreements, adding that “differences should not become disputes.”
- Joint communiqué: The New Delhi Declaration, adopted on September 13, 2026, called for “maximum restraint” in West Asia, condemned unilateral sanctions and urged reforms of the UN Security Council, IMF and World Bank to give the Global South a greater voice.
Criticism & Opposition
- Sana Hashmi, postdoctoral fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation, warned that external factors such as U.S. policies and ongoing wars are driving the thaw, cautioning against labeling it anything more than a “thaw.”
- Shubhada Rao, economist at QuantEco Research, argued that “the desirable outcomes from India’s standpoint will at best be gradual,” noting that expectations of swift improvement in the trade balance are unrealistic.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Border framing: Indian statements present the border issue as a prerequisite for deeper ties, while Chinese releases separate the dispute from broader cooperation.
- Trade figures: Reuters (citing Chinese customs) gave a total trade value of $155.6 billion, whereas CNBC reported $151.1 billion and a deficit of $112.16 billion, leaving the precise scale of the imbalance unclear.
What’s Next
- India and China have agreed to continue high-level dialogues on border confidence-building and trade facilitation, though no specific timetable was disclosed.
- The BRICS chairmanship will pass to China in 2027, with the group slated to host further meetings on AI governance, local-currency trade and global-governance reform.
The Modi-Xi meeting thus marks a symbolic step toward normalising relations, but substantive progress on the border dispute and trade imbalance remains to be demonstrated in the months ahead.