Story perspectives

Markets Price 0.25% Fed Hike Ahead Sept. 15-16

By Drooid · Sep 14, 2026, 2:47 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Story summary

The Federal Reserve (Fed) policy committee will meet on Sept. 15-16, 2026 to decide on a rate change.
Market pricing shows an 85-90% chance of a 0.25-point hike, despite President Donald Trump demanding cuts.
August CPI reported headline inflation up 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support holding rates if progress toward the 2% inflation goal continues.

History

Historical Context

In September 2008, the Federal Reserve slashed the federal funds rate to near-zero after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, aiming to stabilize markets. Chairman Ben Bernanke announced a $600 billion emergency lending program, while the Fed’s balance sheet expanded from $800 billion to $1.2 trillion within months. Today, the September 15-16, 2026 FOMC meeting faces similar pressure, with President Donald Trump urging cuts while Governor Christopher Waller signals possible rate-hold amid 3.4% CPI growth. If the Fed repeats the 2008 aggressive stance, markets may anticipate a swift 0.25-point hike, influencing bond yields and borrowing costs nationwide.

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Story summary

The Federal Reserve (Fed) policy committee will meet on Sept. 15-16, 2026 to decide on a rate change.
Market pricing shows an 85-90% chance of a 0.25-point hike, despite President Donald Trump demanding cuts.
August CPI reported headline inflation up 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support holding rates if progress toward the 2% inflation goal continues.

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