Story perspectives

Lula Leads Bolsonaro 47%-46% in BTG Runoff Poll

By Drooid · Sep 14, 2026, 3:15 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Lula Leads Bolsonaro

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 47% to 46% in a BTG runoff poll.
BTG projects Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 37% in a first-round scenario.
Datafolha’s runoff simulation gives Lula a 46% to 44% lead over Bolsonaro.
Lula holds a 53% to 25% advantage over Bolsonaro in Brazil’s Northeast region.
Brazil’s first round is on Oct 4, with a runoff set for Oct 25 if needed.

Summary

Mendonça Unseals Records

Justice André Mendonça unsealed police records linking banker Daniel Vorcoro to Justice Alexandre de Moraes.
A hearing on the Moraes-Vorcoro allegations is set for September 15 after Chief Justice Luiz Edson Fachin canceled plenary sessions.
Overseas Brazilian voter registration reached 918,876 by September, with South Florida remaining a key diaspora voting hub.
Eduardo Bolsonaro, convicted in June, is lobbying in Washington to reinstate Magnitsky Act sanctions on Justice Moraes.

History

Historical Context

The 2018 Brazilian presidential election, held on October 7, saw Jair Bolsonaro win the first round with 46% of votes, reshaping national politics. Datafolha reported Bolsonaro’s 46% margin against Fernando Haddad’s 29%, while BTG Pactual projected a 42% Lula lead in later polls. Today, Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro 47%-46% in BTG’s runoff simulation, voters total 918,876, and André Mendonça exposed Daniel Vorcoro’s link to Justice Alexandre de Moraes. If the runoff mirrors 2018’s polarization, Chief Justice Luiz Edson Fachin may face pressure, while Eduardo Bolsonaro’s U.S. lobbying could revive Magnitsky sanctions against Moraes.

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Lula Leads Bolsonaro

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 47% to 46% in a BTG runoff poll.
BTG projects Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 37% in a first-round scenario.
Datafolha’s runoff simulation gives Lula a 46% to 44% lead over Bolsonaro.
Lula holds a 53% to 25% advantage over Bolsonaro in Brazil’s Northeast region.
Brazil’s first round is on Oct 4, with a runoff set for Oct 25 if needed.

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