Texas Senate Race Tightens as Polls Show Democratic Lead Amid Trump’s Unusual Endorsement Tactics

A SoCal Strategies survey of 649 likely voters conducted September 12-13 found Democrat state Rep. James Talarico at 50 % and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton at 45 %, a five-point swing from the pollster’s June poll that had Paxton ahead. The same survey noted Talarico’s gains among Hispanic voters (up to 38 %), independents (45 %), and voters aged 18-29 (46 %).

USA Today

An AARP poll of nearly 900 likely voters collected in late August reported Talarico at 48 % versus Paxton’s 44 %, with a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.

Newsweek

Earlier polls show a similarly close picture: a YouGov/Univision poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted August 27-September 4 gave Talarico a 48 %–43 % lead; an Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation poll of 1,167 likely voters from August 24-26 found the race essentially tied at 44 % for Talarico and 43.4 % for Paxton; a Fox News poll of 1,006 registered voters from July 23-27 showed Talarico at 51 % and Paxton at 48 %.

Newsweek

These surveys collectively indicate a statistical dead-heat, with margins of error that keep the lead within the range of a toss-up.

Newsweek

The remarks began on September 2, when Trump said, “Some people don’t like the way he dresses,” and continued through the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, where he added,

CNN

While the SoCal Strategies and AARP polls show Talarico ahead, the YouGov/Univision, Overton Insights, and Fox News polls present a narrower margin or a slight Paxton advantage among certain demographics (e.g., voters 50 and older). No single poll provides a definitive picture of the electorate’s final decision, and the varying sample sizes, dates, and margins of error create uncertainty about the true state of the race.

Newsweek

• Ken Paxton addressed the Republican National Committee’s midterm convention in Dallas, urging supporters to back him and emphasizing his record as attorney general.

CNN

• James Talarico highlighted his campaign’s focus on protecting Social Security and Medicare, noting that nearly 60 % of respondents consider Social Security a major source of household income.

USA Today

• “Some people don’t like the way he dresses,” — Donald Trump, president

CNN

• “Some may not like the way he dresses,” — Donald Trump, president

CNN

• “So I don’t know if he’s gonna ever speak to me again, but you know, I don’t care as long as he wins,” — Donald Trump, president

CNN

• “I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot,” — Donald Trump, president

USA Today

The race will conclude on Election Day in early November, when Texas voters will decide whether the state’s long-standing Republican Senate streak will be broken. Polls suggest the outcome will hinge on undecided Republican voters and turnout among younger and Hispanic constituencies.

Newsweek